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Dec 12, 2020

Disney shares hit record on forecast of streaming surge

Disney's streaming service surge

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Walt Disney Co. shares hit an all-time high after it issued a bold forecast for its new streaming services, projecting a Netflix-like trajectory that could bring the company as many as 350 million subscribers worldwide by 2024 thanks to an onslaught of programming from Marvel, Star Wars and Pixar.

In a presentation to investors Thursday, the world’s largest entertainment company outlined plans for dozens of new movies and TV shows from those major brands, with an eye toward becoming a streaming behemoth in four years. The company expects its program spending to reach US$14 billion to US$16 billion annually by then.

Disney+, the entertainment giant’s flagship streaming platform, also is getting a price hike. The U.S. monthly rate will climb US$1 to US$8 in a move that executives telegraphed earlier this year. In Europe, the price will rise 29 per cent to 9 euros (US$11) a month, although there it is getting additional content aimed at adults.

Shares of Disney rose as much as 11 per cent to a record US$171 in New York trading Friday. The stock has about doubled since March on the strength of the streaming business.

“The enormous success of Disney+ inspired us to be even more ambitious,” Executive Chairman Bob Iger said at the event. “Our pipeline is much more robust than we initially anticipated,” he said, adding that the Disney+ cadence should soon hit 100 new titles per year.

Disney, like other Hollywood studios, is reorienting its film and TV business toward home entertainment, and has leapfrogged many competitors with its fast subscriber growth. Yet with its new subscriber goals -- including hopes for as many as 260 million Disney+ customers -- the company would surpass where industry pioneer Netflix Inc. is today.

As part of the presentation, Chief Executive Officer Bob Chapek said Disney+ has soared past 86.8 million subscribers in a little over a year. The company closed the last quarter with almost 74 million.

Disney executives, including new distribution head Kareem Daniel, outlined aggressive plans to stock the Disney+ service with new programming to keep the subscriber pipeline growing over the next few years. The COVID-19 pandemic forced many Hollywood studios to slow production this year.

‘Last Dragon’

Future plans include 10 series from the Marvel division, 10 Star Wars TV series, and another 15 programs from Disney live action, Disney animation and Pixar.

The programming slate also includes feature-length films, such as the Disney animation picture “Raya and the Last Dragon,” which will debut on Disney+ -- at an extra charge -- the same time as in theaters.

Chapek said that 80 per cent of projects are now headed to streaming, rather than the big screen. But the company’s biggest films will be saved for theaters exclusively at first. That includes movies such as “Black Widow,” a Marvel film slated for May.


What Bloomberg Intelligence Says

“Netflix may be forced to raise its content spending substantially (vs. US$14 billion in 2019) after Disney unveiled an ambitious streaming strategy, which targets as many as 260 million Disney+ users in 2024. While Netflix’s investment thesis is still intact amid a global shift to streaming, greater competition from Disney and higher spending may drag on free cash flow.”

--Geetha Ranganathan, media analyst


While Disney is sending several films, including a live-action “Pinocchio” starring Tom Hanks, directly to its streaming service, theater owners may breathe a sigh of relief that many pictures -- such as an upcoming Indiana Jones feature with Harrison Ford and a new Star Wars, which will be directed by Patty Jenkins -- will still go to cinemas.

As the longtime king of the box office, Disney has been careful not to alienate theater chains -- even as it sends more movies directly to streaming. AT&T Inc.’s Warner Bros. shook up Hollywood last week with its decision to make its entire 2021 slate of 17 movies available on HBO Max the same day they open in theaters. The decision angered many in the industry, including “Tenet” director Christopher Nolan, who said the studio doesn’t “understand what they’re losing.”

Sports Deals

Hulu, the more adult-oriented streaming service, has added 2.2 million subscribers since the last quarter, and now has 38.8 million, according to the company. ESPN+ now counts 11.5 million, up 1.2 million from early October.

Executives at the presentation also announced that ESPN and ABC will become the home for the Southeastern Conference’s top football and basketball games under a 10-year deal starting in 2024, featuring teams like Alabama and Auburn. The company will pay in the low US$300 million range each year on top of previous commitments, or more than six times what CBS currently pays, Sports Business Daily reports, citing unidentified people.

Disney executives also said they will launch the Star service in Europe in February and in Latin America in June. In Europe, it will be integrated with Disney+ and include R-rated content. It will be a stand-alone service in Latin America and feature live sports.

“We’re definitely still in launch mode as it relates to Disney+ -- we’re still going into new markets,” Chief Financial Officer Christine McCarthy said. “And this is where we are at this point in time. This is a minimum amount of content that you will be seeing.”