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Nov 26, 2019

Dollar Tree plunges as tariffs erode profit on low-cost goods

A shopper searches her purse outside a Dollar Tree store in Encinitas, Calif. Dollar Tree

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Dollar Tree Inc. shares fell sharply after the budget retailer trimmed its outlook on 2019 profit, citing tariffs on Chinese imports that will increase the cost of goods sold.

The company now projects full-year earnings per share of US$4.66 to US$4.76, down from its previous range of US$4.90 to US$5.11. While tariffs drove the forecast reduction, Dollar Tree also cited higher wages in its distribution centers, a global helium shortage and higher sales of lower-margin items, among other issues.

The company’s shares fell as much as 14 per cent in early trading Tuesday. They had gained 24 per cent so far this year through Monday’s close, just below the advance of the S&P 500 Index.

Dollar Tree’s downward revision shows the risk that the ongoing U.S.-China trade war poses for retailers -- especially value-based chains that target lower-income consumers, because they have less flexibility to raise prices to offset higher costs related to tariffs. Investors will listening for more details on the tariffs’ impact, and the Chesapeake, Virginia-based company’s efforts to mitigate them, in an upcoming call with analysts.

“They’ve done a very good job thus far of absorbing some of that impact from tariffs, but as tariffs continue to pile up, they’ll probably have to push through some price increases,” said Jennifer Bartashus, a senior analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence.

Other metrics for Dollar Tree, including closely watched same-store sales, were largely in line with expectations.

The dimmer profit forecast contrasts with rival Dollar General Corp., which earlier this year raised its earnings per share outlook for the full year.