Trends by the Dow Jones Industrial Average change significantly during a Presidential Election Year from Average due to recurring events during the year.

From mid-April to near the end of May, the Average has a history of moving lower. During this period, the battle between top candidates for the Presidency intensifies and creates uncertainty.

From near the end of May to early September, the Average moves higher. By the end of May, the final two Presidential candidates become apparent. The final candidates “make nice” by encouraging a unified stance for their party. Prior to conventions (late July this year), final candidates focus on their “publicly pleasing” platforms.

From early September to the end of October, the Average moves lower. Final candidates attack each other with negative advertising. The attack season is expected to be particularly intense this year because the Supreme Court has reduced limitations on SuperPak fund raising and spending.

From the end of October to the end of the year, the Average moves higher in anticipation of new programs expected to be launched by a President with a new mandate.

TOP PICKS:

iShares S&P/TSX Energy Index Fund ETF (XEG.TO) 

Seasonal influences are positive until mid-June. Technicals have turned positive: Intermediate uptrend, positive strength relative to the TSX Composite Index and the S&P 500 Index and up-trending short-term momentum indicators. Caution: First quarter results will be brutal on a year-over-year basis. Preferred strategy is to accumulate on bad first quarter results

First Trust Biotechnology Index Fund (FBT.N)

Seasonal influences are positive from mid- April to late September. Good trade between now and the American Society of Clinical Oncology conference: June 3-7. Technicals have turned positive: Intermediate uptrend, positive performance relative to the S&P 500 and up-trending short term momentum indicators. The First Trust ETF is outperforming NASDAQ Biotech units (IBB.O).

First Trust AlphaDEX U.S. Technology Sector Index ETF (FHQ.TO)

Seasonal influences are positive from mid-April to mid-July. Technicals have turned positive: Intermediate uptrend, outperforming the TSX and S&P 500, uptrending short term momentum indicators. The spring buying season for electronics is just starting. 

Past Picks: Feb. 12, 2016

BMO S&P/TSX Equal Weight Global Base Metals Hedged to CAD Index ETF (ZMT.TO)

First Trust AlphaDEX U.S. Industrials Sector Index ETF (FHG.TO)

ETFS Physical Platinum Shares (PPLT.N)

Total Return Average : +11.62%