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Nov 16, 2020

Dow Industrials reach record on vaccine; oil jumps

BNN Bloomberg's mid-morning market update: November 16, 2020

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U.S. stocks rose to records after positive news on a COVID-19 vaccine sparked a rally in shares tied to an economic reopening while stay-at-home tech companies lagged behind. Oil climbed.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 Index closed at all-time highs after Moderna Inc.’s vaccine was shown to be 94.5 per cent effective in a preliminary analysis of a large late-stage clinical trial. Shares of the drugmaker surged almost 10 per cent. Companies poised to benefit from a reopening, such as cruise lines and air carriers, were among the day’s best performers.

Lockdown favorite Zoom Video Communications Inc. slumped along with other at-home tech names, weighing on the Nasdaq 100.

The vaccine news adds yet another driver to a global stocks rotation into value and cyclical sectors that have been hardest hit by the pandemic, and out of more defensive industries like technology. Advisers to President-elect Joe Biden said they opposed a nationwide shutdown despite surging virus cases.

“Today’s vaccine news should make investors more tolerant of the surging virus cases, permitting them to look through to the strong dynamics that seem to be taking shape for 2021,” said Seema Shah, chief strategist at Principal Global Investors. “Easy monetary policy, fiscal stimulus, recovering economic growth -- there are many reasons for investors to be optimistic as we move closer to the end of this awful year.”

Still, concerns about a sustainable economic recovery persist amid a flare-up in virus cases around the world. California put most of the state under the most restrictive rules, while the seven-day average of new cases in the U.S. rose in every state on Sunday. Germany must live with “considerable restrictions” against the spread of COVID-19 for at least the next four to five months, its economy minister said.

Treasury yields held steady and the dollar slipped. Crude pushed higher as the vaccine news boosted the outlook for demand. China’s oil processing rebounded in October to match a record, as consumption in Asia continues to vastly outpace that of regions still afflicted with the virus.

Elsewhere, European equities rose, following Asian shares higher after a slew of countries Sunday signed the world’s largest regional free-trade agreement, encompassing nearly a third of the globe’s population and gross domestic product. Australia’s stock exchange was hit by a software issue that forced it to close for most of Monday’s session.

In the U.S., the stock rotation continued following the best week for S&P value stocks versus S&P growth shares since 2008. The Russell 2000 Index of small-caps rallied 2.4 per cent to a record, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 rose just 0.6 per cent.

“It’s the same trend we’ve been seeing over the past several weeks which is a move toward value, toward companies that will rebound when COVID goes away,” said Christopher Grisanti, chief equity strategist at MAI Capital Management. “We have facts on the ground which can truly change the environment in a three- to six-month period.”

Here are some events to watch out for this week:

  • Brexit talks look set to continue as the U.K. and EU approach the latest deadline.
  • Bloomberg New Economy Forum virtually convenes global leaders to discuss trade, growing political populism, climate change, and the pandemic. Through Nov. 19.
  • OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee meets Tuesday.
  • U.S. retail sales due Tuesday.
  • Bank Indonesia rate decision Thursday.

These are the main moves in markets:

Stocks

  • The S&P 500 Index climbed 1.2 per cent as of 4 p.m. New York time; the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 1.6 per cent.
  • The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose 1.2 per cent.
  • The MSCI Asia Pacific Index surged 1.5 per cent.
  • The MSCI Emerging Market Index rose 1.3 per cent.

Currencies

  • The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index decreased 0.2 per cent.
  • The euro rose 0.1 per cent to US$1.1848.
  • The British pound was little changed at US$1.3196.
  • The Japanese yen rose 0.1 per cent to 104.56 per dollar.

Bonds

  • The yield on 10-year Treasuries rose one basis point to 0.90 per cent.
  • Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at -0.55 per cent.
  • Britain’s 10-year yield rose one basis point to 0.35 per cent.

Commodities

  • West Texas Intermediate crude rose 3 per cent to US$41.33 a barrel.
  • Gold fell 0.1 per cent to US$1,886.94 an ounce.

--With assistance from Cormac Mullen, Andreea Papuc, Sam Potter, Yakob Peterseil, Katherine Greifeld, Cecile Gutscher and Nancy Moran.

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