Sep 8, 2022
ECB intensifies inflation fight with historic jumbo hike
High risk of recession in Europe next year: Mackenzie Investments' Todd Mattina
The European Central Bank intensified its battle against record inflation by hiking interest rates by a historic three-quarters of a percentage point and pledging “several” further increases, even as the outlook for economic growth darkens.
The unprecedented monetary-tightening step underlines growing alarm as price pressures in the 19-nation euro zone broaden beyond energy and the euro tumbles. The decision matched analyst expectations and brought the deposit rate to 0.75 per cent.
The euro was little changed on the day, while money-market investors boosted bets on further monetary tightening after the announcement.
Accused of reacting too slowly to the upswing in inflation that began as Covid lockdowns ended and worsened when Russia invaded Ukraine, the aggressive move aligns the ECB more closely with the Federal Reserve, which is weighing a third straight hike of the same size this month.
“This major step frontloads the transition from the prevailing highly accommodative level of policy rates towards levels that will ensure the timely return of inflation to the ECB’s 2 per cent medium-term target,” officials in Frankfurt said a statement. “Over the next several meetings the Governing Council expects to raise interest rates further.”
The ECB raised its outlook for inflation this year and next, while slashing its forecast for economic expansion in 2023. The 0.9 per cent projection for growth next year is still more optimistic than the 0.7 per cent median of predictions collected by Bloomberg. Bloomberg Economics sees an advance of only 0.4 per cent
The ECB also suspended its two-tier system for remunerating excess reserves.
Thursday’s decision highlights how ECB hawks still have the initiative on the 25-member Governing Council, emboldened by another overshoot in inflation last month to 9.1 per cent -- more than four times the goal.
Higher borrowing costs are unlikely to blunt the soaring energy prices behind that spike, with potentially worse to come after Russia halted natural gas supplies through a key pipeline. But the fear is that inflation expectations could spiral without aggressive hikes that will become ever-trickier to enact as Europe’s economy stumbles.
This week already saw political pushback as Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez warned that monetary tightening “must be made compatible with an economic-recovery path.” As the cost-of-living crisis saps demand, analysts foresee a euro-area recession starting this year, with some saying a downturn is under way now.
The prospects for Germany, the continent’s largest economy, are bleak due to its outsized reliance on the Kremlin for energy. While it has filled gas-storage facilities more rapidly than targeted, they’re not sufficient to exclude rationing during the winter.
But even with Deutsche Bank AG Chief Executive Officer Christian Sewing warning that a recession is coming, Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel wants the battle with inflation to be prioritized over economic growth.
Higher rates may offer some support to the euro, whose slide below parity with the dollar has made imports, particularly of commodities, more expensive. In July, ECB officials “widely noted” that euro depreciation constituted an “important change” and “implied greater inflationary pressures,” according to an account of that meeting.
Economists polled by Bloomberg reckon the ECB will raise the deposit rate until it reaches 1.5 per cent -- broadly where analysts see the “neutral” interest rate that neither stimulates nor constrains the economy.