Elliott Fishman, director of U.S. and international equity trading at Trading Services Group, Scotia Wealth
Focus: Technical analysis

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MARKET OUTLOOK

The TSX: So boring to follow. It’s completely stuck in a 1,000-point range and, recently, in a 500-point range. It’s 600 points away from its all-time high and 900 points away from support at its 200-week moving average of 14,776. At this stage, we can only hope that energy can maintain its current run and that just might garner up some interest.

The Dow Jones: Super resilient. The index continues to yawn off any bad news. This long-in-the-tooth rally just won’t give it up just yet. My opinion is that the index will need to retest support of the February sell-off, taking it down at least 5 to 10 per cent from here before regrouping. Good earnings, bad earnings … at this stage that isn’t an issue. It will most likely need an external jolt of some kind to get the ball rolling downwards. Volatility has returned and, the more times it’s a triple-digit move, the more likely is there’ll be a change of direction up or down from this current stuck situation.

The S&P: It technically looks like a mirror image of the Dow. It’s currently riding it’s 50-week moving average as support, which it’s done since Trump has been president. A test of its longer-term support lever (100-week, 2,417 points) would be exactly the type of move required by the Dow to confirm this current run.

TOP PICKS

UNDER ARMOUR (UAA.N)

Under Armour had been under siege for two years, falling from almost $50 to just about $11 before turning it around. On a technical look, the company has just crossed over its 50-week moving average of $16.76, so its next area of concern would be its 100-week moving average which sits at $23.61. It’s currently above $18. I would be a buyer now, stopping myself out to the downside at $16.75.

WALMART (WMT.N)

I was preparing this pick leading up to its 77-per-cent ownership in India’s Flipkart. The investing public along with the S&P and some analysts absolutely hate this play, but it doesn’t scare me in the least. Walmart’s biggest anchor has been its e-commerce. Pitting itself up with behemoth Amazon has gone as expected (not good), so why not show up elsewhere where it can get its foot in the door first? It’s risky for sure, but it has so much potential upside down the road. Walmart has had an awful year technically to this point, but is currently rolling into large long-term support areas of:

• 100-week moving average (79.53)
• 200-week moving average (76.12)

I would be a buyer now. The former support line of $87.67 will be short-term resistance, but besides that, the sky is the limit.

MGM RESORTS (MGM.N)

MGM has been quite range-bound while its counterparts Las Vegas Sands and Wynn Resorts are so much more volatile. I still have Las Vegas Sands as one of my picks as I really like the gaming sector. Here’s hoping MGM joins the fun. Moving averages are cooperating. Momentum looks positive, so a purchase now will get us to a test of $40. The 100-week moving average is $30: that will be our downside. A break of that and we exit the name.

PAST PICKS: FEB. 12, 2018

MORGAN STANLEY (MS.N)

• Then: $53.43
• Now: $55.04
• Return: 3.01%   
• Total return: 3.50%

LAS VEGAS SANDS (LVS.N)

• Then: $71.54
• Now: $79.00
• Return: 10.42%
• Total return: 11.55%

HUDSON’S BAY COMPANY (HBC.TO)

• Then: $9.90
• Now: $8.77
• Return: -11.41%
• Total return: -11.28%

Total return average: 1.24%