Estee Lauder Sales View Hit by China Lockdowns, Stronger Dollar

A sales assistant arranges lipsticks at an Estee Lauder Companies Inc. store in the Raffles City shopping mall in Shanghai, China, on Wednesday, May 31, 2017. Retail cosmetics sales for all companies will total $7.4 billion in China in 2021 from $4.3 billion last year, forecasts Euromonitor. Fueling growth are social media websites, such as Weibo, Youku, iQiyi and Tudou, that women are increasingly turning to for tutorials on everything from shading eyes to highlighting cheekbones. , Bloomberg

Jeannette Neumann, Bloomberg News

Aug 18, 2022

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(Bloomberg) -- Estee Lauder Cos.’ sales forecast trailed analyst estimates amid continued lockdowns in China and pressure from the strengthening US dollar.

The fragrance and skin-care company said Thursday that it expects an 8% to 10% drop in sales this quarter, compared with a year ago. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expected revenue to be roughly flat in the quarter, which is the first in Estee Lauder’s fiscal year. The company’s annual forecast also missed estimates.

Pandemic restrictions in China have been a drag on growth at Estee Lauder, which typically generates around one-third of its revenue in the country. In May, the company slashed its annual forecast in large part due to limited capacity at distribution centers in Shanghai. While those facilities are back up and running, Estee Lauder said recent lockdowns in the island province of Hainan are a “strong headwind.”

Shares of Estee Lauder fell 1.6% at 9:41 a.m. New York time. The stock had been trading about 25% below its January highs.

The company said its fiscal first-quarter results will also be hurt by the end of license agreements for the Donna Karan New York, DKNY, Michael Kors, Tommy Hilfiger and Ermenegildo Zegna product lines.

Rupesh Parikh, an analyst at Oppenheimer & Co., said a weak forecast was expected.

“With this negative guide-down out of the way, we believe the setup for EL should improve as the year progresses,” Parikh said in a note to clients, referring to the company by its stock ticker.

Fellow high-end retailer Tapestry Inc. also cautioned about weakness in China in its earnings results on Thursday. The parent company of the Coach and Kate Spade brands said revenue in China fell more than 30% in the three-month period ended July 2 due to Covid-related disruptions. 

Tapestry executives said they expect revenue in China to decline 15% in the current quarter and bounce back to growth in the company’s fiscal third quarter. “For the full year, we see a single-digit growth in China,” Tapestry Chief Financial Officer Scott Roe told analysts during an earnings call. The company’s profit guidance for the upcoming year trailed estimates.

(Updates with Tapestry China details in last paragraph.)

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