(Bloomberg) -- A belt of warmth is forecast to sit over the center of Europe this month, with temperatures expected to climb above seasonal averages from Dublin to Warsaw and cooler weather seen in the Nordic and Mediterranean regions.
France, Germany and Poland will be the hottest areas according to forecaster Maxar Technologies, with lower-than-normal temperatures and flooding predicted for southern countries like Spain.
“June is starting with a widespread high-pressure pattern bringing sunny and dry weather for most of Europe apart from the southwest and southeast, where cloudy and rainy weather is expected,” said Vasileios Pappas, a meteorologist at Swiss trading house MET Group.
The so-called meteorological summer gets underway Thursday after a warmer-than-usual spring, when record heat hit the Mediterranean in the wake of the second-warmest winter on record. Expectations for flooding to replace the severe droughts that characterized last summer underscores the extreme weather patterns that are becoming more common.
It’s a crucial time for Europe, where high heat could fuel demand to power air conditioning and undo efforts to refill natural gas storage tanks ahead of next winter. Last year’s tight supplies, aggravated by Russia’s war on Ukraine, pushed fuel prices to record highs and stoked a cost-of-living crisis that Europe is still trying to overcome.
Prolonged heat and its threat to food inflation is already apparent this year after about 60% of Spain, one of Europe’s top produce growers, was gripped by drought in April. That may ease after heavy rains have since swamped parts of Europe, with forecasters seeing more on the way.
“Across southern Europe, slack low pressure will lead to the development of heavy showers and thunderstorms with above-normal precipitation and flooding risks,” said Amy Hodgson, a meteorologist at forecaster Atmospheric G2. She expects near-normal to slightly below-normal temperatures “extending from Iberia to southern Italy and southeastern Europe.”
In northern Europe, the threat of last year’s extreme weather is yet to emerge.
Germany saw its highest spring precipitation levels in 10 years, resulting in a moistened deep-soil layer better equipped for summer, according to Deutscher Wetterdienst. The national forecaster expects “calm and mostly sunny or clear weather” for the first half of June.
In the Nordic region, cooler weather is forecast for early June before getting warmer by month-end.
“Below-normal temperatures are forecast in parts of Scandinavia for the month as a whole, especially so early in the month,” said Matthew Dross, a meteorologist at Maxar Technologies.
Britain’s national forecaster anticipates temperatures to rise in June, but doesn’t see heat wave levels.
“The month-ahead outlook suggests temperatures will pick up toward the end of June,” said Grahame Madge, a spokesman for the UK Met Office. “Higher temperatures are coming quite late this year.”
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