U.S. to Slow in First-Half of 2020, Says UBS’s Wraith
Futures traders maintained the amount of easing they expect from the Federal Reserve after the U.S. jobs report showed payroll gains cooling more than expected.
January 2021 fed funds futures imply a rate of 1.34 per cent at the end of 2020, having indicated 1.345 per cent just before the release of the data. Assuming an effective fed funds rate of around 1.55 per cent, the market is pricing in around 21 basis points of further easing for this year. That means the market is still pricing in less than a quarter-point cut in 2020.
Nonfarm payrolls rose 145,000 after a downwardly revised 256,000 advance the prior month, according to a Labor Department report Friday. That compares with the median estimate of 160,000 in Bloomberg’s survey of economists. Average hourly earnings climbed a below-forecast 2.9 per cent from a year earlier, the first sub-three-per-cent reading since July 2018.
U.S. Treasury yields fell and the U.S. curve flattened following the data, while the Bloomberg dollar index dipped. S&P 500 futures remained up on the day.