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Welcome to Monday, Americas. Here’s the latest news and analysis from Bloomberg Economics to help you start the day:

• The Federal Reserve’s army of more than 400 Ph.D. economists has a message on inflation for policy makers and the American public: Chill out. Minutes of last month’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting show staff is predicting inflation will be back under 2% in 2022
• U.S. household balance sheets are in their best shape in years, giving Americans greater capacity to propel consumer spending and, in some cases, to make life-altering decisions
• China’s housing slump and electricity shortages dragged down economic growth last quarter, with signs there will be more pain to come as the country heads into winter and property curbs remain
  • People’s Bank of China Governor Yi Gang said authorities can contain risks posed to the Chinese economy and financial system from the struggles of China Evergrande Group
• What’s driving the sudden rises and sharp drops of Bitcoin? A Bloomberg Economics model shows recent price action was fueled by both inflation fears and speculative spirits
• Economists are growing increasingly pessimistic about the outlook for the U.K. recovery, leaving them at odds with markets on the prospects for rapid Bank of England interest rate hikes
• The European Central Bank should keep a high degree of flexibility in its post-crisis stimulus measures, and one way it may do so is by buying more European-Union issued debt, Governing Council member Ignazio Visco said
  • While the euro area’s inflation spike is likely to be transitory, research by Bloomberg Economics suggests it will be the first of many. Climate change and efforts to tackle it make more big overshoots and undershoots almost inevitable
• Finally, here’s what to look out for in the world economy this week.

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