Mar 27, 2023
Goldman Says AI Will Spur US Productivity Jump, Global Growth
(Bloomberg) -- The widespread adoption of artificial intelligence technologies could help stoke a productivity surge and an acceleration in the global economy, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts said.
The combination of significant labor cost savings, new job creation and higher productivity for non-displaced workers would likely result in an output boom that would raise global economic growth “substantially,” Goldman economists led by Jan Hatzius wrote in a note Sunday.
The team estimated that “generative AI” could raise US labor productivity by roughly 1.5 percentage points per year over a decade. Such a jump would be dramatic — productivity only expanded 1.3% on average in the decade through 2022, undermining wage growth.
Once at least half of firms worldwide adopt AI technologies, annual global gross domestic product could enjoy a 7% boost in the subsequent decade, the Goldman economists said. That would be roughly equivalent to $7 trillion. Worldwide, they forecast AI to trigger a 1.4 percentage-point boost to productivity per year.
“If generative AI delivers on its promised capabilities, the labor market could face significant disruption,” the economists also wrote.
Goldman estimates that seven in 10 US workers would see their jobs impacted by AI, but only a small share of those would see their positions replaced by new technologies. Sectors most at risk from replacement include office and administrative support and legal.
Meantime, almost two-thirds of American workers could see AI complement their work, Goldman said, noting sectors including computer and mathematical, education and community and social service.
“The direct effects of generative AI on labor demand could be negative in the near-term,” economists wrote. But “the effects on labor productivity growth would still be positive,” they said.
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