(Bloomberg) -- Financial markets appear to have moved a long way toward pricing in the U.S. election outcome and may shift focus back to vaccine progress and the broader growth outlook, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said.
The “likely delivery of vaccine news in the next few weeks may be the next key event risk,” strategists Dominic Wilson and Vickie Chang wrote in a note Sunday. News of an early vaccine could lead to “meaningful” upside from current market levels, they said.
Major stock indexes may climb and the Cboe Volatility Index could drop to fully reflect news of an early, safe and effective inoculation, the strategists added. They said their framework also suggests dollar weakness, tighter credit spreads and rising Treasury yields in that scenario.
Global stocks headed for a record high Monday amid optimism about the outlook under a Joe Biden presidency, though President Donald Trump has so far refused to concede. At the same time, the pandemic continues to escalate, underlining the importance of a vaccine to bolster the global economy.
In addition to the expected gains for equities, the strategists predicted the Canadian and Australian dollars will benefit most in foreign-exchange markets.
Asset prices reflect a probability of slightly more than 50% for early vaccine approval, and significant delays could lead to “downside risk,” they said. Early approval would comprise emergency-use approval from the Food and Drug Administration for at least one shot by the end of 2020, according to the note.
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