(Bloomberg) -- Tropical Storm Henri is on course to strike Long Island on Sunday then push into Connecticut and the upper Hudson River Valley or Berkshire Hills, bringing damaging winds, dangerous storm surges and heavy rains along the way.
New York City, to the west of Henri’s track, will likely be buffeted by gusts up to 60 miles (97 kilometers) per hour, and areas along the city’s East River and Flushing Bay could have sea levels rise as much as 5 feet (1.5 meters) as the storm rushes through.
However, barring a further shift, the city will avoid a direct strike from Henri, which could be at or near hurricane strength when it makes landfall.
“I don’t to want to get caught up on whether it’s a weak hurricane or a strong tropical storm, the effects will be about the same,” said Rob Miller, a meteorologist with commercial-forecaster AccuWeather Inc.
Henri’s final track will depend on a weather system developing in the Midwest. Forecasts have already shifted a number of times.
The storm was between Bermuda and the coast of North Carolina, about 525 miles south of Montauk Point, New York, as of an 8 a.m. EDT advisory from the National Hurricane Center. The outlook called for it to strengthen to a Category 1 hurricane as it came north.
Hurricane warnings have been posted from Fire Island Inlet to Montauk Point on Long Island’s south shore and from Port Jefferson Harbor to the eastern tip on the north side. A hurricane watch is in place from Watch Hill, Rhode Island, to Westport, Massachusetts, and for Block Island, which is a popular tourist destination.
Storm Surge
The storm’s then expected to cross Long Island Sound and make a second landfall later on Sunday near New Haven, Connecticut, Miller said. Earlier outlooks on Friday had the storm striking near Providence, Rhode Island, bringing its worst winds across eastern Massachusetts and the resort areas of Cape Cod.
Although the impact on New York City and Boston will mostly be in the form of high winds, a dangerous storm surge may funnel into Long Island Sound, striking both the New York and Connecticut coastlines.
The winds, rain, and surge damage could reach at least $1 billion in losses, said Chuck Watson, a disaster modeler with Enki Research. Many of those costs will be absorbed by residents, who will make repairs themselves or because the damage won’t reach insurance deductibles. The storm could also kick up a tornado or two over southern New England, the NHC said.
“It is hard to get a strong tropical storm or minimal hurricane hit anywhere in the U.S. and not get upwards to $1 billion in impacts,” Watson said. “And of course the Northeast is such a target rich environment.”
Henri is the latest in a string of menacing events unfolding around the globe as climate change fuels extreme weather. Massive wildfires are ablaze in California, Greece, Algeria, France and elsewhere. July was the hottest month ever recorded on Earth.
READ: Tropical Storm Henri Could Be the Next $1 Billion Disaster
Utilities are bracing for power outages. Eversource Energy, which serves Connecticut and Massachusetts, said it’s closely monitoring forecasts. Con Edison, which serves much of the New York City region, is “preparing for a worst-case scenario” and lining up 1,200 workers from other utilities to help restore service.
READ: Henri’s Lumbering Pace Is Bad News for Wherever the Storm Hits
Hurricane Isaias ripped up the East Coast last year, knocking out power to millions in New Jersey and New York. Hurricane Irene touched off massive flooding across New England in 2011 after roaring over Manhattan. The entire Northeast was devastated by Superstorm Sandy in 2012, which caused $77.4 billion in damage.
Henri threatens 30 years after Hurricane Bob tore across eastern Massachusetts. In September 1938, the region was hit by one of its worst storms ever, when a hurricane killed hundreds of people.
Further south, Hurricane Grace came ashore Saturday in Mexico as a Category 3 storm with sustained winds of 125 mph tearing into the coast near Tuxpan in Veracruz state. The storm is weakening as it crosses the countryside and was 60 miles east-northeast of Mexico City with 90-mph winds as of 7 a.m. local time, the hurricane center said.
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