(Bloomberg) -- Deloitte expects retailers will see slower volume gains this holiday season, from November through January, as a result of the US economic slowdown.

“Retail sales are likely to be further affected by declining demand for durable consumer goods, which had been the centerpiece of pandemic spending,” Daniel Bachman, Deloitte’s US economic forecaster, said in a statement. “However, we anticipate more spending on consumer services, such as restaurants, as the effects of the pandemic continue to wane.”

The consulting firm forecasts a 4% to 6% increase in 2022 holiday sales from the $1.39 trillion tallied in the same period in 2021. Last year’s sales were up 15% from 2020 as pent-up demand caused consumers to spend more on travel and dining out. This year’s projected growth in dollar value is in-line with pre-pandemic trends, though at a reduced volume due to rising prices.

Inflation is expected to drive more consumers online in pursuit of deals. Deloitte projects e-commerce sales will be up 13% to 14% from 2021’s $231 billion. That’s faster growth than last year’s 8.4%.

To combat the expected in-store slowdown, Walmart Inc. has started to promote gifts under $25. It’s also trying to appeal to collectors of popular toy brands such as Barbie, Pokemon, Star Wars, Lego and Hot Wheels, who might be less sensitive to prices.

“We know customers are shopping early and searching for the best deals,” Jessica Mireles, Walmart’s senior director of merchandising for toys, said in an interview. “And we’ve got more collectible toys this year, an expansion from years past, with many Walmart exclusives. That’s where we’re really leaning in, to provide more collector-type items across the board, whether for adults or kids.”

Other retailers are also trying to appeal to cash-strapped consumers. 

With higher prices squeezing demand, Best Buy Co. is bringing back holiday promotions. Wealthier shoppers are hunting for bargains at Kohl’s Corp. while Target Corp. continues to mark down product categories as it tries to pare its excess inventory. Meanwhile, Amazon.com Inc. sellers are bracing for a bleak holiday shopping season and many fear they’ll be forced to cut prices to move a mountain of unsold inventory.

"As our customers face an ongoing inflationary environment, we know they are looking to stretch their dollars further than ever before,” Stuart Aitken, Kroger Co.’s chief merchant and marketing officer, said in a statement announcing the grocer’s new price-conscious product line.

©2022 Bloomberg L.P.