(Bloomberg) -- This round of currency intervention in Hong Kong is far from over.
That’s according to analysts, who’re watching the interplay between the amount of money in the city’s financial system and local borrowing costs. Shorting the Hong Kong dollar will remain profitable until the latter starts to go up sharply, and the monetary authority will spend at least another HK$50 billion ($6.4 billion) defending the peg before that happens, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch and OCBC Wing Hang Bank Ltd.
Hong Kong’s currency has hit the weak end of its trading band repeatedly over the past week, spurring intervention that’s cost nearly $700 million.
At the heart of the analysts’ calculus is a call on how low the city’s aggregate balance can go before banks start feeling a funding squeeze. That’s hard to judge given the liquidity measure has swung between HK$426 billion and HK$71 billion in the past decade. (When the central bank buys Hong Kong dollars from commercial lenders, the balance goes down.)
Right now, it sits at just over HK$70 billion, low relative to recent history, but the gap between Hong Kong and U.S. borrowing costs remains wide. So there’s little to stop traders selling the city’s dollar and parking the proceeds in the higher-yielding U.S. currency.
“The pressures will continue for money to flow out from the Hong Kong dollar, as long as the rate spread exists," said Kevin Lai, chief economist for Asia ex-Japan at Daiwa Capital Markets Hong Kong Ltd. Local borrowing costs will become more responsive to intervention when the aggregate balance slides to HK$20 billion-HK$30 billion, he added.
Any spike in interbank rates as a result of the currency operations risks intensifying pressure on the world’s most expensive property market and weighing on the city’s economy. But officials do have a tool to mitigate this -- they’ve issued HK$1 trillion of exchange fund bills that, if allowed to mature, would add money back into the system. And the city’s $434.5 billion of foreign-exchange reserves are more than enough to handle the intervention that analysts expect.
The Hong Kong dollar was little changed at HK$7.8498 to the greenback as of 8:56 a.m. local time.
Here’s what analysts say about the Hong Kong dollar and HKMA intervention:
Bank of America Merrill Lynch (Ronald Man, strategist)
- The HKMA may need to spend another HK$60 billion this year to defend the currency peg; that means the aggregate balance will fall to HK$10 billion by the end of 2019, close to the level seen before the financial crisis in 2008-09
- The liquidity drainage will not cause funding conditions to become disorderly because the HKMA can always release liquidity back into the aggregate balance by letting some of its EFBs mature
- Prime and deposit rates may be raised by 25 basis points, if the aggregate balance falls below HK$10 billion
- Hong Kong dollar to trade near HK$7.85 in the "foreseeable future"
- Stock investors may sell the local dollars in exchange for the yuan and buy mainland shares via the trading links; but outflows from Hong Kong will be gradual
DBS Hong Kong Ltd. (Tommy Ong, managing director for treasury and markets)
- One-month and three-month Hibor rates will climb, squeezing the room for short-Hong Kong dollar trades, after the aggregate balance falls below HK$50 billion; this may happen before the end of next week
- Overnight Hibor won’t rise persistently unless the aggregate balance drops below HK$20 billion
- One-month Hibor to stand at 1.8% by end-March and 2% by end-June
Daiwa Capital Markets (Kevin Lai, economist)
- Hong Kong dollar will hover near HK$7.85 throughout the year, and the HKMA will intervene repeatedly in the currency market over the next few months
- The aggregate balance will eventually drop to zero, Lai said, without giving a time frame; how long this process takes also depends on U.S. monetary policy
- Hibor will rise significantly after the liquidity pool drops to zero
- A prime rate hike is still possible this year
- Foreign capital inflows into Hong Kong seen early this year may have more or less stopped
OCBC Wing Hang Bank (Carie Li, economist)
- The size of short-Hong Kong dollar trades is not as significant as last year, as investors have become more cautious following the drops in the aggregate balance
- The aggregate balance may fall to HK$60 billion this month, HK$50 billion in April or May, and HK$20 billion sometime next year
- The HKMA may inject liquidity by not rolling over EFBs to soothe investor sentiment, if the cash pool drops below HK$20 billion
- Hong Kong dollar to trade weaker than HK$7.83 this year; one-month and three-month Hibor rates will stay below 2% for most of 2019
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