(Bloomberg) -- The European Central Bank will meet its inflation target in 2025, according to its quarterly survey of professional forecasters.
Consumer prices will rise two per cent next year — matching the prediction from the previous poll — a release on Friday showed. The projection for 2024 was also unchanged at 2.4 per cent, while the outlook for 2026 dipped to 1.9 per cent from two per cent.
Longer-term expectations for both headline and core inflation were steady at two per cent.
The results come a day after the ECB held interest rates at 3.75 per cent, without providing a clear signal of when it will next ease monetary policy. Market bets point toward two more cuts in 2024, though officials are wondering whether that’s feasible, according to people familiar with the matter.
Other findings from the survey:
- Forecasters expect core inflation — excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco — to fall to 2.2% in 2025 and 2% 2026, slowing from 2.7% this year
- Economic growth is seen quicker this year: 0.7% versus 0.5% in the last survey round, though the outlook for 2025 worsened to 1.3% from 1.4%
- Forecasters see unemployment at 6.5% this year, compared with 6.6% before, and expect it to even out at 6.4% in the long term
- The ECB’s July 2-5 poll includes 56 responses
With assistance from Mark Evans
©2024 Bloomberg L.P.
