(Bloomberg) -- Giorgia Meloni is starting to find herself shut out of the European conversation. And she’s not going down without a fight.
On Thursday the Italian prime minister scorned returning Commission President Ursula von der Leyen by voting against her reelection. That marks a departure from a long stretch in which cozying up to Europe’s center-right had been part of Meloni’s rebrand as an indispensable diplomatic operator.
The von der Leyen snub represents a switch to a gloves-off strategy for Italy’s leader, after last month she found herself on the receiving end of a brush-off in turn. Showing up in Brussels on the back of her success in European parliamentary elections, she had expected to be central to the discussion on who to nominate for the union’s top jobs.
Instead, the erstwhile kingmaker found herself left out of the closed-door negotiations that delivered von der Leyen’s nomination. This, according to people familiar with her thinking, enraged her. She’d just had a great European election: fellow leaders Olaf Scholz and Emmanuel Macron had not.
Meloni isn’t used to getting the cold shoulder. Over the course of less than two years in power she turned herself into a go-between among the EU’s warring factions, brokering smoother relations and even deals with the bloc’s right-wing renegades.
Now that’s threatening to unravel, and it’s Meloni herself who’s going rogue.
“Considering how the European game works, her decision not to back von der Leyen could become a source of weakness in the European arena, though it was likely motivated by her need to remain coherent” according to Giovanni Orsina, who heads the political science department of Rome’s Luiss University.
Coherent, that is, with Meloni’s statements that she would never vote with the left. While a lawmaker from her party expressed bafflement at her actions, another person familiar with the premier’s thinking pointed out that she had limited choice since voting for von der Leyen’s appointment would have meant aligning with the Greens, and given succor to far-right critics at home.
The prime minister, speaking in a video circulated by her team, said she wished the returning commission president well and was staying true to a prior stance deploring the manner and the outcome of the appointment.
Perhaps she was reminding von der Leyen that her support comes at a price.
Still, the souring of these relationships has consequences that go beyond mere prestige in the European arena — even if that’s a nice bauble to have for a politician who began her career in Italy’s euroskeptic, post-fascist milieu and who loves to wrong-foot critics by playing against type.
The frictions have emboldened domestic rivals. And in the months ahead may strengthen them further: one reason Meloni knows she needs to keep the Europeans on side is that the fate of the EU’s third-biggest economy rests partly in their hands.
Brussels Scrutiny
Italy faces scrutiny from Brussels over the scale of its deficit. That heralds tough choices for Italy’s first female prime minister: either she upsets the electorate by pushing through unpopular measures to rein in spending — or she risks further conflict with the European allies by ignoring their pleas.
Toeing the EU line keeps markets happy and bond spreads low, which would help Italy service the second-highest debt burden in Europe after Greece. But such a move could alienate voters and weaken Meloni’s position within her own coalition, with her junior partner Matteo Salvini ready to capitalize on any unkept promises.
Meloni is likely to fudge her earlier electoral pledges, according to people familiar with her plans who, like others, requested anonymity when discussing private conversations. Having promised a broad cut to income tax that was to cost €10 billion, the government’s now preparing to limit that to earners in lower tax brackets.
A spokesperson for the prime minister did not immediately return a request for comment.
Noisy Rivals
People close to her describe the characteristically mistrustful Meloni as approaching a state of siege. Salvini’s party has become more vocal in its attacks and now criticizes her every move. He said if Meloni voted for von der Leyen “it would be her end.”
In the months leading up to June’s European elections it seemed as though her Brothers of Italy party was lining up to serve as an informal ally for Von der Leyen’s European People’s Party, which forms the European parliament’s largest group.
The commission president spent a lot of time courting Meloni personally, and even went to visit Italian migrant detention centers to demonstrate solidarity with the Italian premier’s position that the country bears an unfair burden of migration into the EU.
The von der Leyen alliance is now on ice. Meloni’s not only been ignored by the center-right but also outmaneuvered by the far-right, which she had been trying to help manage.
After the election Hungary’s leader Viktor Orban branched out on his own to creating the new right-wing Patriots for Europe party, which now outnumbers Meloni’s European Conservatives and Reformists. Her coalition partner Salvini was quick to join the rival group.
Another scenario Meloni had been wary of — a victory for Marine Le Pen’s party in France — never materialized, yet she knows her brand of right-wing politics risks losing some of its luster.
--With assistance from Chiara Albanese.
©2024 Bloomberg L.P.
