(Bloomberg) -- Israel prides itself on having some of the best air defenses in the world, but these billion-dollar systems are being tested. The country is braced for the possibility of a new aerial attack from Iran, which vowed to retaliate for the July 31 killing in Tehran of Ismail Haniyeh, political chief of the militant Palestinian group Hamas. The Iran-supported Hamas has been fighting a war with Israel since October. Two other regional militias backed by Iran have been engaged in tit-for-tat fighting with Israel since then. Both the Lebanon-based Hezbollah and the Houthi rebels of Yemen have stepped up their use of explosive drones, which have proven more effective at evading Israel’s high-tech defenses than missiles and rockets. An escalation of attacks could overwhelm Israel’s systems.
What are the threats to Israel?
Iran’s military is thought to have a significant stockpile of the ballistic and cruise missiles and cheap drones that it deployed against Israel when it launched a massive aerial bombardment in April, after blaming Israel for an attack in Syria in which several Iranian officers were killed.
Israel and Hezbollah have been exchanging near-daily fire along the Israel-Lebanon border that threatens to escalate into full-blown war. Hezbollah, the most powerful of the Iran-allied militant groups in the region. In addition to drones, it is believed to have an arsenal of more than 150,000 missiles, including long-range and precision-guided ones that could reach deep into Israel and target major cities and strategic assets such as military bases, airports, electricity grids and hospitals, according to Israeli assessments.
In addition to attacking commercial ships in the Red Sea, the Houthis have been firing ballistic missiles and drones at Israel. On July 19, a Houthi drone hit a building in central Tel Aviv, killing a man and injuring several others, the first deadly attack of its kind on Israel’s soil. Israel retaliated a day later by bombing a key port in Hodeidah, nearly 2,000 kilometers (1240 miles) away, killing dozens in its first direct strike on Yemen.
What air defenses does Israel have?
Iron Dome. The most active and well-known of Israel’s air defenses is Iron Dome, which since 2011 has intercepted thousands of rockets fired by Hezbollah and by Palestinian militants in the Gaza Strip. The system, developed by Israel’s Rafael Advanced Defense Systems and co-produced since 2014 with the US-based Raytheon Technologies, is designed to counter projectiles and drones with a short range, from 4 kilometers to 70 kilometers (2.5 to 43 miles). Israel’s army says Iron Dome intercepts 90% of such projectiles heading toward populated areas. The Israeli military announced in April that a mobile, maritime version of Iron Dome — known as C-Dome — was operational. It could be used to fend off Hezbollah attacks targeting Israel’s offshore gas fields or ships.
David’s Sling. In 2017, Israel installed a medium-to-long-range interceptor known as David’s Sling, which was co-developed by Rafael and Raytheon. David’s Sling is designed to detect and destroy ballistic and cruise missiles, as well as drones, at a reported range of up to 200 kilometers. That range covers southern Lebanon as well as Gaza.
Arrow. Israel also possesses the advanced Arrow missile defense system, made up of Arrow 2 and Arrow 3. Developers have said the Arrow system can intercept missiles fired from up to 2,400 kilometers away and can do it above Earth’s atmosphere, where long-range ballistic missiles spend part of their flight time. Arrow could be activated if Iran fires ballistic missiles from its territory and if the Houthis and Iran-backed groups in Syria and Iraq were to attack Israel.
Iron Beam. Israel’s military is testing another system called Iron Beam, which uses lasers to intercept projectiles fired at close range at less expense than the Iron Dome. Iron Beam is not expected to be operational before mid-2025.
Can these systems be overcome?
Already, Hezbollah has inflicted damage and caused dozens of casualties in northern Israel since October using kamikaze explosive drones, many of which are able to slip through Israel’s defenses. The group is thought to be increasing its stockpile of these drones.
The Houthi drone attack on Tel Aviv, which did not trigger any warning alerts, underscored Israel’s vulnerability to incoming drones. Israel’s army says the drone was detected but failed to be intercepted due to “human error.”
What’s more, Israel’s army has acknowledged that its air defenses, including Iron Dome, can be overwhelmed if a large number of projectiles are fired simultaneously. Israel expects Hezbollah could fire some 3,000 rockets and missiles every day during a war, far exceeding the capacity of the systems designed to intercept them.
Some of Israel’s newer air defense systems were only recently battle-tested. Arrow 3, which was jointly developed by Israel Aerospace Industries and Boeing Co., notched its first battlefield success in November 2023 when it shot down a missile fired toward southern Israel by the Houthi rebels. David’s Sling knocked down rockets from Gaza in fighting that erupted in May 2023. Both were successfully used in Iran’s April bombardment of Israel. During that attack, Israel and its allies, including the US and UK, intercepted 99% of the 300 drones and missiles fired at the country, mostly before they entered Israeli airspace. The US is assembling a similar regional alliance to counter the anticipated Iran bombardment of Israel. However, in that case, Israel had advance warning of the assault and Hezbollah was not involved, conditions which may not be repeated in the next assault.
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