(Bloomberg) -- Ukraine’s lightning intervention into Russian territory shows that a war apparently stuck in a prolonged stalemate can still produce surprises. More than a week after the assault on Russia’s western Kursk region began, Ukrainian troops appeared to be holding areas they had seized. It’s an embarrassment for Russian President Vladimir Putin who, having failed to topple the leadership in Kyiv in more than two years of intense fighting, is now grappling with the first foreign invasion of his country since World War II.
Why did Ukraine launch the incursion into Russia?
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy had been looking to launch an attack that would shock the leadership in Moscow and put Putin on the backfoot, according to a Western official familiar with the planning. If Russia fails to repel the Ukrainians, it will raise morale in Kyiv and help to protect parts of Ukraine from constant shelling by Russia. It could also potentially blunt the advance of Russian troops in the Donetsk region further south by forcing the Kremlin’s military leadership to send troops and resources to counter the incursion. Ukrainian forces also claim to have captured lots of Russian soldiers who can be exchanged for their own troops in future prisoner swaps.
What did Ukraine’s leadership say about it?
It took almost a week for Zelenskiy to publicly confirm the military operation which he called a “purely defensive issue,” without giving away details of his longer-term game plan. He drew a parallel with the disastrous sinking of Russia’s Kursk nuclear submarine in the initial months of Putin’s presidency in 2000, saying the events in the Kursk region would usher in the final period of the Russian leader’s rule.
So how is it going?
The situation remains fluid, with no clear front line and both armies focused on striking their opponents where they find them. Ukrainian reconnaissance units were still making sorties deep into Russian territory in the region. Ukraine claims to have captured about 1,000 square kilometers (386 square miles), while Russia earlier announced the loss of an area roughly half that size. Ukrainian troops appeared to be largely in control of a gas metering facility along a strategic transit pipeline supplying western Europe. Gas was still flowing through the pipeline for now.
How have the Russians responded?
Russian troops have yet to fulfill Putin’s order to drive out the enemy and secure the border. Authorities in Moscow have declared a federal emergency in the Kursk region and the local governor said a sixth of its population has fled areas affected by the fighting. Russia’s Federal Security Service also announced a “counter-terrorism” regime in Kursk and the neighboring Belgorod and Bryansk border regions, a move allowing for restrictions on movement and communications. While the Russian military has sent in reinforcements, it hasn’t scaled back its offensive in Ukraine’s east, and has stepped up its bombardment of border areas.
What do Ukraine’s allies say?
Ukraine’s western partners including the US and the European Union raised no objections to the Kursk operation, while reserving judgment on its prospects for success. The Pentagon said Ukraine’s actions are consistent with US policy on the use of American-supplied weapons as the country is defending itself against attacks from across the border. A member of the defense committee in Germany’s lower house of parliament, Markus Faber, said the leadership failure by Russia’s military in Kursk has put Ukraine in a favorable position, and called for more aid to support a Ukrainian advance.
What does it mean for the war?
The lack of an immediate forceful response from Russia to the capture of its territory raises questions about the Kremlin’s ability to enforce its own red lines. It may also encourage Kyiv’s western donors to allow Ukraine to finally strike targets inside Russia using the long-range strike weapons they donated. Until now, the Ukrainian military has been obliged to limit its use of weapons such as the US ATACMS surface-to-surface missile to attacking targets in Ukrainian territory captured by Russia.
While the Russian territory under Kyiv’s control is relatively small for now, it offers a new card in potential future peace talks, assuming the military can retain its gains. But the Kursk action may also strain Ukraine’s military if too many of its most experienced troops get diverted from front lines elsewhere.
Retaliation from Moscow may be on the way. The absence of major missile barrages for more than a month is a possible sign that Russia is accumulating weapons for a major new attack.
--With assistance from Kateryna Chursina.
©2024 Bloomberg L.P.
