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US Jobs Data Will Test Bond Traders’ Bets on Another Big Fed Cut

Published: 

(Bloomberg) -- Investors in the US Treasury market are looking ahead to a crucial US labor-market report, as well as remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, for clues on the scale of the central bank’s next interest-rate cut. 

What to Watch

  • Economic data:
    • Sep. 30: MNI Chicago PMI; Dallas Fed manufacturing activity
    • Oct. 1: S&P Global US manufacturing PMI; construction spending; JOLTS job openings; ISM manufacturing; Dallas Fed services activity; Wards total vehicle sales
    • Oct. 2: MBA mortgage applications; ADP employment
    • Oct. 3: Challenger job cuts; initial jobless claims; S&P Global US services and composite PMIs (final); factory orders; durable goods orders (final), capital goods orders (final); ISM services index
    • Oct. 4: US non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate and average hourly earnings
  • Fed calendar:
    • Sep. 30: Fed Governor Michelle Bowman; Fed Chair Jerome Powell
    • Oct. 1: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic; Fed Governor Lisa Cook; Boston Fed President Susan Collins; Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin
    • Oct. 2: Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack; St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem; Bowman; Barkin
    • Oct. 3: Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari; Bostic
    • Oct. 4: New York Fed President John Williams
  • Auction calendar:
    • Sep. 30: 13-, 26-week bills;
    • Oct. 1: 42-day CMB
    • Oct. 2: 17-week bills
    • Oct. 3: 4-, 8-week bills

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