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Plunge in Brazil, Mexico oil exports leads large global decline

A refinery in Cadereyta, Mexico. Photographer: Brett Gundlock/Bloomberg (Brett Gundlock/Bloomberg)

The flow of seaborne oil fell sharply in January, led by a plunge in shipments from Mexico and Brazil.

The two nations’ slumps are a reminder of how volatile supply can be in a world where the world’s two largest oil consumers — the US and China — are on the brink of imposing tariffs on oil imports.

Brazil and Mexico saw their combined flows fall by more than 600,000 barrels a day in January from where they were in December, ship tracking and industry data compiled by Bloomberg show. Global seaborne exports dropped by 1.3 million a day, a second consecutive month of sizeable decline.

Total shipments, which are still subject to revision, stood at 37.81 million barrels a day, having been at 40 million as recently as November.

To put the decline in context, the International Energy Agency anticipates a supply-demand surplus of 725,000 barrels a day across 2025. Exports and production have only a loose month-on-month correlation.

There were also significant declines from Algeria, Iraq and West Africa while exports of Kazakh barrels from the CPC terminal dropped too. Flows of Russia’s flagship grade Urals increased.

Below are country-by-country flows data in thousands of barrels a day. Individual stories to each countries are in the blue links on each exporter.

©2025 Bloomberg L.P.