Markets remain near record highs after recent interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada, but risks are mounting. A looming U.S. government shutdown, record national debt and new US$100,000 H-1B visa fees could weigh on investor confidence in the weeks ahead.
Andrew Vuk, investment advisor at The Waterfront Group with Wellington-Altus Private Wealth, joined BNN Bloomberg to discuss market trends, the outlook for tech and gold, and his latest portfolio ideas.
Key Takeaways
- U.S. government shutdown risk grows with Sept. 30 funding deadline and rising US$37-trillion debt.
- New US$100,000 H-1B visa fees threaten tech firms reliant on global talent, potentially boosting international equities.
- Nvidia–OpenAI deal fuels market optimism but raises concerns over industry consolidation and dependence on a few major customers.
- Equal-weight S&P 500 ETF (RSP) seen as hedge against concentration in mega-cap tech stocks.
- Gold remains a defensive play, with forecasts it could approach US$4,000 per ounce as investors seek inflation protection.
Read the full transcript below:
A. BELL: The markets are at record highs, but there’s always a cloud on the horizon. We’ve got the deadline for U.S. government funding and the U.S. government shocking the tech industry with these massive fees — US$100,000 for future H-1B visas. Let’s get more from Andrew Vuk, investment advisor at The Waterfront Group, Wellington-Altus Private Wealth. Great to see you, thanks very much for coming on the show. What in particular is lifting stocks again today, if you could single something out?
A. VUK: To your earlier comments, Andrew, thank you for having me. I think it’s really twofold: the interest rate cuts by the Fed, more notably, and also by Canada last week. You also have this massive US$100-billion deal between Nvidia and OpenAI, which gave markets a boost. Before that announcement, markets were trading lower on the H-1B surprise the Trump administration released late last night. Nvidia has deep pockets, and it’s not surprising they’re making use of them to keep their growth trajectory. But that US$100,000 H-1B visa fee is definitely going to ruffle feathers in the tech and financial markets.
A. BELL: Just to go back to Nvidia — it seems a little circular to me. They’re putting billions into OpenAI, but part of the deal is that OpenAI will buy Nvidia equipment. There’s something a little recursive about that.
A. VUK: For sure. It’s a case of rubbing each other’s backs. Even more interesting is that OpenAI was thought to be the mystery US$10-billion Broadcom customer announced two weeks ago. So when I saw this, I scratched my head. Is there some cannibalization going on in the industry? It feels like the tech bubble of the early 2000s — consolidation, and a rush by mega-cap companies to make big investments. How OpenAI works so closely between two competitors remains to be seen, but it will be interesting as that unfolds with this 10-gigawatt server centre being built out.
A. BELL: Talk to us about this US$100,000 fee that will go on new H-1B visas. Over the weekend, big tech companies were apparently telling their workers to get back to America as quickly as possible.
A. VUK: That’s probably a worthwhile reaction. Amazon, for example, had the most H-1B visas last year at around 14,000 to 15,000. Microsoft and financial companies are also big users. For so long, U.S. innovation in finance and tech has relied heavily on international expertise and immigration. This could open the door for international equity markets to continue their dominance over the U.S., because if those workers can’t come in, America loses out. OpenAI’s CEO said an hour ago that policymakers really need to think this through, and Amazon’s CEO is heading to the White House this week. It’s a serious concern when skilled individuals are needed most, with the AI race in full force.
A. BELL: American innovation has long been fuelled by immigrants. It’s remarkable that the country has become so reliant that its own educational system can’t produce the workers its industries need.
A. VUK: That’s right. The U.S. has the world’s best Ivy League schools, but there simply aren’t enough people in finance, tech and engineering to meet demand. Multinational corporations are so large that they need global talent. It’s not a knock on the U.S. education system — it’s just that America has led global tech dominance for three decades, and to maintain it, you need skills from everywhere.
A. BELL: You have a portfolio idea for us — an ETF called RSP. It trades in New York, and it’s an S&P 500 Equal Weight Index ETF. Over the past year it has lagged the S&P 500, but the benefit is it avoids massive concentration.
A. VUK: Exactly. In Canada, its sister ETF is EQAL. The RSP, which you probably have on screen, has a longer track record. We’ve been studying the divergence between the cap-weighted S&P 500 and its equal-weight counterpart. It’s at a two-decade wide gap in earnings and future price-to-earnings prospects. Now is as good a time as ever, in our opinion, to stay away from tech a little. Many investors are already overweight in that space. The equal-weight approach lets you capture the other 492 names that haven’t kept up. History tells us that such divergences usually close within a couple of years.
A. BELL: Give us your view on gold before we let you go. If clients say they want more gold, what do you tell them?
A. VUK: We were on the show about a month ago and said we thought gold had put in a solid floor at US$3,300. Now we see a good chance of it touching US$4,000 per ounce. It remains a great inflation hedge. Gold is up 36 per cent year to date — the same as Nvidia — which shows the unusual market we’re in. For safety, stability and inflation protection, we’re keeping a close eye on precious metals.
A. BELL: We’d better jump. Thank you very much indeed.
A. VUK: Thank you so much for having me, Andrew.
A. BELL: Andrew Vuk, investment advisor at The Waterfront Group, Wellington-Altus Private Wealth.
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This BNN Bloomberg summary and transcript of the Sept 22, 2025 interview with Andrew Vuk are published with the assistance of AI. Original research, interview questions and added context was created by BNN Bloomberg journalists. An editor also reviewed this material before it was published to ensure its accuracy and adherence with BNN Bloomberg editorial policies and standards.
