(Bloomberg) -- Tropical Storm Ernesto will begin raking the Caribbean’s Leeward Islands overnight with high winds and heavy rain, as watches and warnings have been posted as far west as Puerto Rico.
Ernesto’s top winds reached 40 miles (64 kilometers) per hour as it churned about 590 miles east-southeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico, the US National Hurricane Center said in a 5 p.m. New York time advisory. The Atlantic’s fifth storm of 2024 is forecast to build into a Category 2 hurricane by the weekend, potentially threatening Bermuda, the US National Hurricane Center said.
“Heavy rainfall may result in locally considerable flash flooding and mudslides in areas of the Leeward Islands and Virgin Islands through Wednesday, and over Puerto Rico late Tuesday into Thursday,” the center said.
Puerto Rico has been hit hard by storms in recent years, including Hurricane Maria, which killed at least 2,900 people in 2017. Two years ago, Hurricane Fiona knocked out power to the vast majority of the island. US forecasters are predicting an explosive Atlantic hurricane season, with as many as 24 named storms, as warm ocean waters provide fuel for weather systems.
In an average season of 14 storms, the fifth usually arrives by Aug. 22. The current system is forecast to remain in the Atlantic off the US East Coast and never get near energy production in the Gulf of Mexico.
The storm may bring upwards of 6 inches (15 centimeters) of rain across the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico, with as much as 10 inches falling in isolated areas, threatening to trigger landslides and floods. A week ago, the eastern US was inundated by Hurricane Debby.
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