Hot Picks: Fintech stocks diverge on stablecoin market trends

Fintech stocks are diverging as crypto cycles, regulation and payment innovation reshape the sector.

BNN Bloomberg spoke with Gus Gala, senior equity research analyst at Monness, Crespi, Hardt & Co., about why stablecoins and infrastructure platforms are emerging as key drivers of long-term value.

Key Takeaways

• Crypto markets remain mid-cycle, with historical trends suggesting further downside risk before a recovery.
• Trading-driven revenue models are more volatile, exposing some platforms to greater earnings swings during downturns.
• Stablecoins are gaining traction in real-world use cases, particularly in cross-border and B2B payments.
• Regulatory changes in the U.S. could shift economics within the crypto ecosystem, favouring infrastructure providers.
• Unified payment platforms are better positioned to benefit from rising complexity and global transaction growth.

Read the full transcript below:

ANDREW: We’re on Hot Picks today, and we’re talking fintech — with a bit of a twist. We’re joined by Gus Gala, senior equity research analyst at Monness, Crespi, Hardt & Co. Gus, thanks very much for joining us.

We’re going to start with a pair trade. You’re suggesting going long Circle and short Coinbase. Just to remind viewers, Circle Internet Group issues stablecoins, including ones tied to the U.S. dollar and the euro, while Coinbase is a long-time player in the crypto market. Can you walk us through how Coinbase makes money before we get going?

GUS: Yeah, absolutely. Coinbase generates part of its income from stablecoins — primarily USDC — where it earns a share of the reserve interest.

Roughly 50 per cent of the business is trading revenue, so fees from transactions when users buy or swap crypto assets like bitcoin or ethereum. Other parts of the business include staking, which involves helping secure proof-of-stake blockchains and earning a yield, with Coinbase taking a cut.

There’s also custody, developer tools, and newer initiatives like expanding into tokenized assets and building out its layer-two network and wallet ecosystem.

ANDREW: And you’re relatively pessimistic on Coinbase. Why is that?

GUS: The main issue is the cycle. If you look at historical crypto cycles, using bitcoin as a proxy, drawdowns from peak to trough tend to last about 350 days. We’re roughly halfway through that, so it’s not clear we’ve reached the bottom.

Second, most of Coinbase’s revenue is still tied to trading and non-stablecoin activity, which is more volatile.

Third, when you look at how stablecoins are being used — particularly in real-world applications like cross-border B2B payments — Circle is better positioned. Regulatory changes in the U.S., including how stablecoin rewards are treated, are likely to have a more negative impact on Coinbase.

Those changes could also alter the revenue-sharing agreement between Coinbase and Circle in a way that favours Circle and pressures Coinbase’s top line.

ANDREW: So that’s the bearish case on Coinbase. Briefly, why are you more optimistic on Circle?

GUS: Circle is more of an infrastructure provider. It’s building out its own blockchain and expanding its role in how stablecoins are used in real-world payments.

Stablecoins are programmable, which means a lot of the complexity in payments can be handled at the money layer itself, rather than through intermediaries. That reduces costs significantly — in some cases to fractions of a cent per transaction.

That positions Circle well as stablecoins gain traction in areas like B2B and cross-border payments.

ANDREW: We’re tight for time, but quickly — Adyen. Why should investors consider it?

GUS: On a growth-adjusted basis, it trades like a low-growth company, but it’s likely to grow in the high teens to low 20 per cent range over the next few years.

As payments become more complex, that benefits platforms with unified infrastructure. Adyen stands out because it has a single integrated system, unlike competitors built through acquisitions, and that supports higher authorization rates globally.

ANDREW: Gus, thanks very much. We appreciate your time.

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This BNN Bloomberg summary and transcript of the April 9, 2026 interview with Gus Gala are published with the assistance of AI. Original research, interview questions and added context was created by BNN Bloomberg journalists. An editor also reviewed this material before it was published to ensure its accuracy and adherence with BNN Bloomberg editorial policies and standards.