Eli Lilly shares rose after the drug-maker reported third-quarter results that beat forecasts and raised its full-year revenue guidance. The company credited its diabetes and weight-loss treatments, Mounjaro and Zepbound, for driving stronger earnings and revenue.
BNN Bloomberg spoke with Evan Seigerman, managing director and head of healthcare research at BMO Capital Markets, who said Lilly’s focus on its metabolic franchise continues to set it apart from rivals such as Novo Nordisk in the rapidly expanding GLP-1 drug market.
Key Takeaways
- Eli Lilly’s third-quarter earnings and revenue surpassed forecasts, driven by Mounjaro and Zepbound sales.
- The company lifted its 2025 revenue outlook to US$63–63.5 billion amid continued GLP-1 strength.
- Analyst Evan Seigerman says Lilly’s metabolic franchise remains the “anchor” of its growth strategy.
- Seigerman sees limited impact from tariffs and ongoing U.S. pricing discussions under the Trump administration.
- He maintains an outperform rating on Eli Lilly with a US$930 price target, citing strong commercial execution.
Read the full transcript below:
ROGER: One of the stocks trading higher today is Eli Lilly, after the U.S. drug-maker raised its full-year guidance as revenue from its weight-loss and diabetes drugs beat expectations in the third quarter. Let’s dive into these results with Evan Seigerman, managing director at BMO Capital Markets. Evan, thanks very much for joining us.
EVAN: Thank you for having me.
ROGER: What did Eli Lilly do right?
EVAN: They continue to execute on selling both Mounjaro and, most importantly, Zepbound for diabetes and obesity, respectively. They actually had a successful second quarter, but it was overshadowed by orforglipron. Bottom line, they continue dominating this market, well ahead of their competitor Novo Nordisk, which also had some interesting news out today — putting in an unsolicited bid for Medsera, upping Pfizer’s offer.
ROGER: Any concerns in that market about the obesity and diabetes drugs? Is it getting flooded right now, or is there still lots of room?
EVAN: I still think there’s a lot of room. What’s really interesting about Lilly is that they’re focused on servicing all areas of the market — from orforglipron, their small molecule that’s expected to launch next year, to tirzepatide with Mounjaro and Zepbound, to even higher-efficacy products on the horizon. They’re focused on doing their own thing rather than the competitive dynamics Novo is driving through M&A. Lilly is ensuring access and working to continue growing the market.
ROGER: When you look at the numbers, which ones stand out most to you? Were there any that gave you pause for thought?
EVAN: No. The fact that they beat expectations on Zepbound and Mounjaro is what I wanted to see. And, of course, they raised their earnings and revenue guidance — that shows confidence heading into the back half of the year and belief that their anchor franchise, the GLP-1s, will continue to accelerate. Novo Nordisk, by contrast, has been cutting guidance. We’re really seeing a bifurcation between these two. Novo reports next week, and I don’t expect results quite as strong.
ROGER: Any concerns around U.S.-China relations, tariffs or some of the comments President Trump has made recently about pharmaceuticals?
EVAN: Not so much on China per se, but we’re waiting to see another Pfizer-like deal, potentially involving Lilly or Novo Nordisk. What we’d like to see is clarity on how GLP-1s will be priced under Medicaid, potential access for obesity treatment under Medicare, and perhaps an end to compounded drugs that have been plaguing both Lilly and, more specifically, Novo Nordisk. That’s still to be determined, and obviously they won’t comment on pending negotiations with the president.
ROGER: Any idea when we might expect something?
EVAN: It’s to be determined. I mean, it’s President Trump — what do you expect?
ROGER: So it could be tomorrow, it could’ve been yesterday, or it could be six months from now?
EVAN: Maybe not six months — hopefully closer to the end of the year, potentially.
ROGER: And how about the rest of the sector? How are things looking?
EVAN: It’s a really interesting time for the sector. The initial deals from Pfizer and AstraZeneca gave some hope, but now the focus is on results. Companies need to deliver. We’ve seen solid results from those that have reported, with more to come next week — including Pfizer, Novo Nordisk and Gilead. The sentiment and mood in my space are better, but still cautious. We’re not back to the great optimism we had a few years ago.
ROGER: I wrote down “metabolic franchise” in my notes. Can you talk about that?
EVAN: For sure. That’s Lilly’s anchor business — its diabetes and obesity products, the GLP-1s. It’s what they call their metabolic franchise. It includes treatments for metabolic diseases such as obesity, diabetes and fatty liver disease.
ROGER: And that’s what you’re liking? They’re looking strong there?
EVAN: One hundred per cent, yes.
ROGER: And I don’t even need to ask — you’ve got an outperform rating and a U.S. $930 price target for them.
EVAN: Yes, that’s correct. We like Lilly. We have a market perform on Novo Nordisk. Other top picks in the space are Gilead and AbbVie.
ROGER: And what do you like about those two?
EVAN: We like Gilead because it’s not in the obesity space. They have a long-acting prevention treatment for HIV and strong growth in their core HIV business into the 2030s. As for AbbVie, they’re excelling in inflammation with Skyrizi and Rinvoq, and showing strength in oncology. They don’t need to do deals to be strong, but they have the capacity to do so.
ROGER: Evan, thanks very much for joining us today.
EVAN: Thank you for having me.
ROGER: Evan Seigerman is managing director at BMO Capital Markets.
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This BNN Bloomberg summary and transcript of the Oct. 30, 2025 interview with Evan Seigerman are published with the assistance of AI. Original research, interview questions and added context was created by BNN Bloomberg journalists. An editor also reviewed this material before it was published to ensure its accuracy and adherence with BNN Bloomberg editorial policies and standards.
