Canada’s trucking industry remains under strain as weak manufacturing, high interest rates and lingering tariff uncertainty weigh on freight demand and profitability. TFI International’s latest earnings showed declines across most divisions, reflecting the broader challenges facing North American transport companies.
BNN Bloomberg spoke with Ernest Wong, head of research at Baskin Wealth Management, about how TFI is managing through industry overcapacity, the ongoing turnaround of its TForce Freight division, and what investors should watch for in its capital allocation strategy.
Key Takeaways
- TFI International reported lower revenue and profits amid a weak freight environment.
- Overcapacity from the 2022 trucking boom continues to weigh on pricing and margins.
- High interest rates and slow U.S. industrial activity are curbing freight volumes.
- Tariff uncertainty adds volatility as retailers adjust inventory and shipping patterns.
- Investors are watching for updates on TForce Freight’s turnaround and future capital allocation plans.
Read the full transcript below:
MERELLA: Quebec-based trucking company TFI International has just reported its earnings. Let’s take a look at the third-quarter results.
Revenue came in at $1.97 billion, which is almost a 10 per cent year-over-year drop. The estimate had been $2.02 billion, according to Bloomberg consensus, so that’s a miss on revenue for TFI.
Truckload revenue came in at $684.1 million, down just over five per cent year over year. Logistics revenue was $367.8 million, a 14 per cent drop from last year.
Adjusted earnings per share were $1.20 compared with $1.60 a year ago. The estimate had been $1.19, so the company narrowly beat expectations by one cent. Operating income was $153.3 million, down 25 per cent year over year. The estimate had been $151.7 million, so a slight beat there. Adjusted EBITDA came in at $305.4 million, down 15 per cent year over year. The estimate had been higher, at $306.9 million, so a miss for TFI on that front.
Let’s crunch the numbers with Ernest Wong, head of research at Baskin Wealth Management. Ernest, thanks for joining us today. We knew the numbers wouldn’t be great — that they’d be down from last year — but give me a quick first impression.
ERNEST: Yeah, it’s been a tough year overall for the trucking industry, not just for TFI. They’re being impacted by a weak manufacturing and industrial environment in the U.S. Higher interest rates are still affecting housing demand and car demand. There’s also a lot of tariff uncertainty, and overlaying all of that is the overcapacity that’s been in the trucking sector since 2022.
What we’re seeing from TFI’s results, as well as from other trucking or logistics companies such as CP Rail, Old Dominion Freight Line and UPS, is that things are still sluggish and not expected to improve much in the near term.
MERELLA: Can you explain the impact from 2022?
ERNEST: Sure. During COVID, there were a lot of supply chain disruptions. Shipping and trucking rates surged, and the industry faced a shortage of drivers. So companies added capacity by hiring more drivers and buying more trucks. But right after all that expansion, demand fell because of the issues we just talked about. That created the perfect storm that’s hitting the trucking industry today.
MERELLA: We hear about tariffs — a lot of our trade with the U.S. is covered under the CUSMA agreement, so the tariffs aren’t huge. But are we just not seeing activity bounce back to what it was before?
ERNEST: Yeah, tariffs are part of it, but the bigger issue is that industrial activity in the U.S. — which a lot of these truckers depend on — is still very sluggish. Companies just aren’t expanding or shipping as much, so shipping rates are weak. There are too many trucks chasing too little freight.
The tariffs certainly aren’t helping, either. They’re causing volatility — for example, retailers built up inventory in advance of tariffs, then didn’t see the demand they expected. The entire industry is still working through that.
MERELLA: What about the UPS Freight acquisition? Has that worked its way through? And does TFI tend to do a lot of mergers and acquisitions?
ERNEST: The big thing to focus on for TFI is that, even with a weak freight backdrop, they’re still working through the turnaround of their UPS Freight division — now called TForce Freight — which they acquired in 2020. It’s required more work than expected to improve service quality.
Within a tough market, we’re looking for signs that they’re fixing what they can control — things like reducing missed pickups, improving freight quality and incrementally increasing pricing. Their earnings call is tomorrow morning, so we’ll get more details then.
MERELLA: Okay, Ernest, we’ll leave it there. Thanks for your time. Ernest Wong, head of research at Baskin Wealth Management.
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This BNN Bloomberg summary and transcript of the Oct. 30, 2025 interview with Ernest Wong are published with the assistance of AI. Original research, interview questions and added context was created by BNN Bloomberg journalists. An editor also reviewed this material before it was published to ensure its accuracy and adherence with BNN Bloomberg editorial policies and standards.
