Enbridge is raising its dividend and forecasting higher core profit for 2026 as it positions itself to benefit from growing demand for liquefied natural gas. The company also highlighted a slate of new projects expected to enter service that year, spanning gas transmission, oil, utilities and renewables.
BNN Bloomberg spoke with Aaron MacNeil, research analyst at TD Cowen, about how Enbridge’s guidance compares to analyst expectations and how ongoing mainline expansion plans fit within recent federal–provincial policy developments.
Key Takeaways
- Enbridge raised its dividend by three per cent alongside upgraded expectations for 2026 core profit.
- The company has about $8 billion in projects scheduled to enter service across gas, oil, utilities and renewables.
- Most of Enbridge’s gas growth is tied to rising U.S. power demand, including needs linked to data centres.
- Proposed expansions to the company’s mainline target southbound crude egress, viewed as more capital-efficient than new route construction.
- Analysts say Enbridge is unlikely to pursue a new westbound pipeline unless the risk–reward balance shifts, potentially through government-backed returns.
Read the full transcript below:
MERELLA: Enbridge is forecasting higher core profits for 2026 and has raised its dividend as the Calgary-based energy delivery company positions itself to capitalize on growing demand for liquefied natural gas. Let’s go to Aaron MacNeil, research analyst at TD Cowen. He joins us now. Thanks for your time.
AARON: Thanks for having me on.
MERELLA: Enbridge’s forecast is actually below TD estimates. Where’s the biggest miss, and what do you see as the disconnect here?
AARON: Just a bit of nuance here. It is below our estimate on an EBITDA basis. We are right in line on a DCF, or distributable cash flow, basis. So in terms of the money they earn that goes toward the dividend or goes toward growth capital, we were in line. Our FX assumption was a little higher than their guide, our expectations on a recovery in their Mid-Con pipelines were a little bit higher, and a couple of other bits and bobs. But ultimately, from a distributable cash flow basis, they were relatively in line with our estimate.
MERELLA: The CEO says there are $8 billion in new projects entering service in 2026. Can you give us some insight into what that includes?
AARON: There’s a whole slate of projects across the platform. What I would say is they’re firing on all cylinders. They have projects coming into service in gas transmission, on the oil side, renewables, and so on. And on the utilities piece, there’s a wedge of recurring spend there. For a company of Enbridge’s size, it’s hard to pinpoint things, but they have quite a bit coming in across the platform.
MERELLA: Is a lot of this catering to U.S. power demand?
AARON: Yes. Most of the gas growth we’re seeing with Enbridge and with others is south of the border.
MERELLA: Has the company positioned itself to benefit from AI data centre build-out or power needs in the U.S. or Canada?
AARON: It would be more of a U.S. phenomenon. With the Spectra acquisition in 2017, they added a big gas platform to the business. They also acquired three U.S. utilities several years ago, and they would have tentacles into those types of projects across their platform. Ultimately, they’re not going to be building gas-fired power. Their pathway to that market is mostly through building laterals to new gas plants.
MERELLA: We also have a memorandum of understanding between Alberta and Ottawa, and new pipelines could be in play. Will this benefit Enbridge at all? Ottawa is looking for private money to invest, but we haven’t heard about private partners yet. What do you expect Enbridge’s role to be?
AARON: First of all, Enbridge is not the proponent — at least not yet. While they would be very capable of building this type of asset, they have not put their hand up to build it at this time. They have proposed several expansions to their mainline, which would expand crude oil midstream egress into the U.S. for incremental volume growth. Today, they’re offering brownfield expansions to their existing assets, which are largely oriented south, not west. They believe — and the math bears it out — that those are more capital-efficient projects to expand egress today. Ultimately, for Enbridge specifically, the risk–reward isn’t there yet. I would say that applies to others as well. But to the extent a new pipeline is built, it would be a competitor to the mainline, which is the largest crude oil egress pipeline out of Canada.
MERELLA: You mentioned not enough has changed yet for a company like Enbridge to get involved. What would it take? Alberta now seems on board with doing what it can to bring a new pipeline, Ottawa seems on board to fast-track it. What would need to change?
AARON: I don’t want to speak for Enbridge, but I can provide my opinion. The last two West Coast pipelines — one gas, one oil — were significantly above original cost expectations. The returns on those assets will not be what was originally expected. Enbridge enjoys a lot of opportunity across its platform in gas and oil, less so in renewables. So this becomes an opportunity-cost discussion. If they’re enjoying high returns in other opportunities, and they can fill their growth requirements with those lower-risk, more capital-light opportunities, it would be a tough sell to abandon that and go for a longer-cycle, likely lower-return, higher-risk project.
I don’t want to propose solutions, but the risk–reward balance would have to change. The government could come in and backstop a specific return, for example. There are others, but giving more certainty on returns would matter because today, Enbridge enjoys high certainty to pretty attractive returns across the platform.
MERELLA: Got it. Aaron, I appreciate you joining us. Aaron MacNeil, research analyst at TD Cowen.
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This BNN Bloomberg summary and transcript of the Dec. 3, 2025 interview with Aaron MacNeil are published with the assistance of AI. Original research, interview questions and added context was created by BNN Bloomberg journalists. An editor also reviewed this material before it was published to ensure its accuracy and adherence with BNN Bloomberg editorial policies and standards.
