Canada’s housing market ended 2025 with little national movement, as price declines in major urban centres offset gains in smaller and mid-sized regions. While uncertainty continues to weigh on confidence, shifting affordability and seasonal factors are expected to lift activity in the months ahead.
BNN Bloomberg spoke with Phil Soper, president and CEO of Royal LePage, about fourth-quarter home price trends, regional migration patterns and why the spring market is likely to bring increased activity without a sharp rebound in prices.
Key Takeaways
- National home prices were largely unchanged at year-end, masking significant regional differences across the country.
- Major urban markets remain buyers’ markets, while many smaller cities are seeing steady or healthy price growth.
- Price compression between large cities and more affordable regions is reshaping migration patterns.
- Back-to-office policies are supporting demand for urban housing, particularly condominiums.
- Spring activity is expected to pick up seasonally, with prices forecast to remain essentially flat through 2026.
Read the full transcript below:
ROGER: In the fourth quarter of 2025, the national aggregate home price fell 1.5 per cent year over year, according to a new report from Royal LePage on Canada’s housing market. Let’s get more on that from Phil Soper, president and CEO of Royal LePage. Phil, thanks as always for joining us.
PHIL: My pleasure.
ROGER: What are your thoughts on that 1.5 per cent decline? Are we hitting bottom, or where do you think things are heading?
PHIL: We’ve really been treading water for some time now. The big story behind that national aggregate number is regional variation. Some parts of the country with more moderate home prices are seeing fairly normal, healthy appreciation, while our two largest metropolitan markets continue to slide. The last time we spoke, I described this as a compression in prices, and that trend is continuing.
ROGER: Where are we seeing increases, and where are people moving?
PHIL: The strongest price growth continues to be in Quebec, particularly Quebec City, where you have large public infrastructure projects and very tight housing supply. We’re also seeing solid markets as far away as Newfoundland, with St. John’s performing well. Smaller cities in Ontario and British Columbia are holding up, too. But Greater Toronto and Greater Vancouver remain soft. Those are buyers’ markets, while most of the rest of the country is closer to balanced conditions.
ROGER: That Quebec City number really stands out — a 13.2 per cent year-over-year increase. What’s driving that? Is it people leaving major cities, or something else?
PHIL: Quebec is a good example, and smaller Ontario cities are a useful parallel. You’ve got Montreal as the main metropolis, where prices are significantly higher than in Quebec City. It’s only an hour to an hour and a half away, depending on where you’re moving from and to, and that’s a relatively small lifestyle change in exchange for more affordable housing. Employment conditions there are also very strong.
We can paint that picture across the country. What started during the pandemic was people realizing that if you lived in Toronto, you were paying roughly three times as much for a home as in places like Calgary. Over time, as Toronto prices have drifted lower and prices elsewhere have risen, that gap has narrowed. What was three-to-one is now closer to two-to-one, and that affects interprovincial migration. We’re seeing fewer people leaving the largest cities as those price gaps compress.
ROGER: Is the push to return to the office playing a role, especially in cities like Toronto, Montreal and Ottawa?
PHIL: Yes, back-to-office policies are helping certain segments, particularly the condominium market, which has struggled. We could also use some easing of restrictions on immigration and foreign students to support condo demand, but even without that, we’re seeing people reconsider living closer to urban cores. Commuting a couple of days a week from two hours away was manageable, but three or four days a week changes that calculation.
ROGER: As we head into the spring market, is there pent-up demand? Are people eventually going to have to move?
PHIL: Absolutely. Trade concerns and geopolitical tensions have weighed heavily on consumer confidence. Those risks haven’t disappeared, but people are adjusting to them. They’re no longer waiting for a perfectly calm global environment. From a Canadian perspective, they’re seeing progress and moving forward.
Spring is always our busiest season, and we do expect an increase in activity. We’re not anticipating a sharp rebound or a dramatic surge in prices, but there will be a pickup. For 2026, we’re forecasting that prices will be up about one per cent by year-end — essentially flat, but modestly positive.
ROGER: What about the rental market? Are rents coming down, and is that influencing people to stay renters rather than buy?
PHIL: Yes, rents are quite attractive in some major cities right now, particularly Toronto and Vancouver, though not in places like Quebec City or St. John’s. Generally, a tight resale market leads to a tight rental market, but conditions vary regionally.
Lower rents in big cities are drawing more people into rentals, which is challenging for small investors. Those investors — people who own one, two or three condominiums as part of their retirement savings — provide a large share of Canada’s rental stock. They’re under pressure now, especially with fewer newcomers following the sharp curtailment of immigration.
ROGER: We’ll have to leave it there. Phil, always a pleasure.
PHIL: My pleasure.
ROGER: Phil Soper, president and CEO of Royal LePage.
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This BNN Bloomberg summary and transcript of the Jan. 15, 2026 interview with Phil Soper are published with the assistance of AI. Original research, interview questions and added context was created by BNN Bloomberg journalists. An editor also reviewed this material before it was published to ensure its accuracy and adherence with BNN Bloomberg editorial policies and standards.
