Shares of Strategy rose in premarket trading after the company reported quarterly results, with investor focus centred on its heavy exposure to bitcoin and the risks tied to cryptocurrency volatility. The stock is designed to amplify or temper bitcoin price moves, rather than smooth them out.
BNN Bloomberg spoke with Lance Vitanza, managing director and senior research analyst at TD Securities, about why Strategy’s capital structure allows it to withstand prolonged bitcoin weakness and why near-term debt risks remain limited.
Key Takeaways
- Strategy’s equity is intentionally structured to rise and fall with bitcoin, offering amplified exposure compared with ETFs.
- The company’s liquidity position allows it to withstand prolonged bitcoin weakness without selling its holdings.
- Near-term debt maturities are limited, with the first major putable notes not coming due until late 2027.
- Capital markets access remains a key strength, even during challenging conditions for crypto-linked issuers.
- Investor focus on bitcoin price thresholds understates the company’s ability to wait out downturns.
Read the full transcript below:
ANDREW: Shares in Strategy have been moving up in the premarket. This is the world’s largest corporation that holds bitcoin, often described as a bitcoin treasury company. We’re joined now by Lance Vitanza, managing director and senior research analyst at TD Securities, who says volatility in Strategy is not a bug, it’s a feature, and the stock is meant to rise and fall with bitcoin. Thanks very much for joining us, Lance. We’re tight for time, and I’m sorry, but the essential value of Strategy is the bitcoin it holds.
LANCE: Thank you for having me. Yes, the premise of Strategy — and really the brilliance of Strategy — is that it has taken a highly volatile asset, bitcoin, and created securities that have either amplified or tempered that volatility. So it’s not just that it owns a lot of bitcoin. You could buy an ETF and get exposure to bitcoin, but with an ETF you’re not going to be able to increase the amount of bitcoin that you own per share. Whereas with MicroStrategy — with Strategy — over the past several years, they’ve been able to increase their holdings of bitcoin on a per-share basis dramatically.
ANDREW: You probably saw that Michael Burry, the hedge fund manager, took a swing at Strategy, arguing that if bitcoin continues to weaken, capital markets could essentially be closed to the company. He also said additional drops could push bitcoin miners toward bankruptcy. Is Burry overstating the threat here?
LANCE: I think there’s some validity to that, but there’s also a lot of confusion around this point. We don’t see any realistic scenario in which Strategy is forced to materially alter its game plan, let alone sell any of its bitcoin. The company has fixed charges of about $900 million. Its first note maturity is a $1 billion convertible obligation that becomes putable in September 2027. It’s a discrete put, but let’s assume the worst and assume that it’s put back to the company in September 2027.
Now, the software business does generate some cash, but let’s be conservative and assume that dries up. The company has built a $2.25-billion cash stockpile. So without raising another nickel, the company can redeem the notes that are put in September 2027 and pay interest and dividends for another 16 to 17 months.
A lot of people are focused on what bitcoin price would cause the company’s assets to no longer exceed the value of its liabilities, and that price is about $23,000 per bitcoin. But that misses the point. Bitcoin could fall to zero today, and the company could simply hunker down and wait for a potential recovery. They are funded into 2028, and that’s before they raise another nickel.
Last month, in January 2026, the company raised more than $3 billion of public common equity capital. They raised more than that if you include the preferred shares they also sold. My point is that for a company that can raise $3.3 billion in a very challenging crypto environment, I don’t think investors should be overly concerned about its ability to meet what we consider very manageable and prudent financial obligations.
ANDREW: So it’s not going to default on its debt, in other words, in the foreseeable future.
LANCE: Not only in the foreseeable future, but it’s hard to imagine that the company wouldn’t be able to raise capital. It has a total of $8.2 billion of convertible debt that is putable or matures starting in late 2027 and continuing into early 2029. But let’s consider the bulk of that as being a 2028 problem. Again, in order to solve that problem, in a worst-case scenario, the company would have to raise an additional $6 billion or $7 billion. They raised roughly half of that just last month.
ANDREW: Lance, I’m sorry to cut you off. Thank you very much. You covered a lot of ground there. Thank you very much indeed.
LANCE: My pleasure.
ANDREW: Lance Vitanza, managing director and senior research analyst at TD Securities.
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This BNN Bloomberg summary and transcript of the Feb. 6, 2026 interview with Lance Vitanza are published with the assistance of AI. Original research, interview questions and added context was created by BNN Bloomberg journalists. An editor also reviewed this material before it was published to ensure its accuracy and adherence with BNN Bloomberg editorial policies and standards.
