Bombardier has lifted its 2026 outlook after reporting a sharp rise in fourth-quarter profit and revenue, as demand for higher-end business jets strengthens. The company is forecasting more than 157 aircraft deliveries and revenue above US$10 billion in 2026.
BNN Bloomberg spoke with Nicolas Owens, equity analyst in industrials at Morningstar, about the improved guidance, the impact of a multibillion-dollar Vista Global order, growth in aftermarket services and the potential risks tied to trade negotiations.
Key Takeaways
- Bombardier reported fourth-quarter net income of US$653 million, up from US$124 million a year earlier, as revenue rose to US$3.69 billion.
- Adjusted earnings increased to US$4.80 per diluted share from US$3.01, reflecting improved operating performance and a richer aircraft mix.
- The company expects more than 157 aircraft deliveries in 2026 and revenue above US$10 billion, supported by demand for large-cabin, long-range jets.
- A US$1.18-billion firm order for 40 Challenger 3500 aircraft, with options for 120 more, adds long-term backlog visibility.
- Aftermarket services are growing faster than total revenue, providing steadier cash flow and reinforcing the company’s post-turnaround strategy.
Read the full transcript below:
LINDSAY: Bombardier has raised its outlook for 2026 after a strong fourth quarter. The aircraft manufacturer aims to deliver more than 150 aircraft this year, following a recent $1.2-billion deal with Vista Global. However, with CUSMA talks looming, the now tariff-exempt company could face some turbulence.
For more on all of this, we are joined by Nicolas Owens, equity analyst at Morningstar. It’s good to have you with us. Thanks so much.
NICOLAS: Thanks for having me, Lindsay.
LINDSAY: Overall, what’s your initial impression of Bombardier’s latest earnings report?
NICOLAS: It was really solid. They delivered a few more planes than I had originally expected, so revenue came in about $250 million higher for the year than I anticipated. If they sell a dozen of the Global 8000 aircraft, that’s about $1 billion of revenue. It definitely adds up. It’s a great outcome for them.
LINDSAY: Bombardier recently signed a $1.2-billion deal with Vista to sell 40 jets over the next decade, with options for 120 more. How significant is this for Bombardier? Is it too ambitious, or can they meet those goals?
NICOLAS: It’s important to remember that this is spread out over many years. I’d see it as a batch order, but really business as usual for a fleet management-type deal. It’s similar to an airline placing an order with Boeing or Airbus 10 to 15 years out to secure production slots for when those planes will be built.
LINDSAY: So over 10 years, that’s a fairly normal order in this context?
NICOLAS: Yes. It’s good business, but not a game-changer. It’s not as though they wouldn’t have sold those planes to someone else.
LINDSAY: When we look at the 2026 outlook, it came in slightly above expectations. What’s driving that optimism?
NICOLAS: There’s momentum from successful product launches. Right now, they have the fastest and longest-range business jet on the market, which lists at $78 million per aircraft. One plane can make a bigger difference to the top line than it used to. The sales mix is shifting toward these larger, higher-priced aircraft.
LINDSAY: The end of this year also marks the completion of Bombardier’s five-year turnaround plan, first announced in 2021. How effective has that been?
NICOLAS: I’d say highly successful. Even two years ago, some investors didn’t fully appreciate the transformation of the company. The biggest change in strategy has been reasserting itself in the aftermarket services business. They’ve been adding capacity and capabilities so owners return for maintenance, upgrades and parts.
In aerospace, that’s attractive because it provides more visibility into long-term revenue and profits. In the latest quarter, aftermarket revenue grew faster than total revenue, meaning they’re capturing more of their own installed base. That’s been a very successful move.
LINDSAY: Bombardier has also been in the headlines over U.S. tariff threats and comments about aircraft certification. With CUSMA renegotiations coming up, is trade policy the biggest headwind?
NICOLAS: It’s fair to say it’s a risk. But we’ve seen a number of trade threats without follow-through. It can be a bargaining chip. I don’t think it’s likely to block certification or qualification of these jets.
LINDSAY: Even so, when those headlines emerged, the stock fell about seven per cent in a day. Are you concerned about that kind of volatility?
NICOLAS: Short-term volatility is understandable. Aerospace is highly tied to imports and exports, and it’s often part of trade discussions. That could mean more headlines and some volatility.
From Morningstar’s perspective, we view Bombardier as a narrow-moat company with a strong franchise. Unless there’s a clear line of sight to how a policy announcement would hit the bottom line, a sharp drop like that could present an opportunity, although the shares have appeared fairly valued in recent months.
LINDSAY: We’ll leave it there. Nicolas Owens, equity analyst at Morningstar. Thanks for your time.
---
This BNN Bloomberg summary and transcript of the Feb. 12, 2026 interview with Nicolas Owens are published with the assistance of AI. Original research, interview questions and added context was created by BNN Bloomberg journalists. An editor also reviewed this material before it was published to ensure its accuracy and adherence with BNN Bloomberg editorial policies and standards.
