Walmart beat fourth-quarter revenue and profit estimates but maintained a cautious full-year outlook, pointing to trade uncertainty and labour market conditions. The retailer posted solid same-store sales growth and continued momentum in e-commerce as it gains share across income groups.
BNN Bloomberg spoke with Michael Lasser, equity research analyst at UBS, who said the results were largely in line with expectations and reflect steady execution, with room for potential upside if consumer trends remain stable.
Key Takeaways
- Walmart reported fourth-quarter adjusted earnings per share of $0.74, ahead of guidance and consensus, with U.S. same-store sales rising 4.6 per cent.
- Full-year adjusted earnings guidance of $2.75 to $2.85 per share came in below analyst expectations of $2.97, reflecting management’s cautious stance.
- E-commerce sales rose 27 per cent in the quarter, with the U.S. online business now generating roughly $100 billion in GMV at scale.
- Market share gains are increasingly driven by higher-income households, broadening Walmart’s traditional customer base.
- Automation and higher-margin revenue streams, including advertising and membership, continue to support profitability alongside core grocery sales.
Read the full transcript below:
ROGER: Walmart is projecting a cautious outlook despite beating revenue and profit estimates in the fourth quarter, citing trade uncertainty and labour market conditions. The retail giant says e-commerce and speedy deliveries are helping to drive results. Let’s get more insight on this from Michael Lasser, equity research analyst at UBS. Michael, thanks very much for joining us.
MICHAEL: Thank you for having me.
ROGER: Is this kind of Walmart being Walmart for this report — good numbers and cautious?
MICHAEL: Well said. Yeah, trying to be conservative. I think it is Walmart being Walmart — super steady, a 4.6 per cent increase in its U.S. same-store sales, strength across most of its international markets, along with Sam’s Club profitability that was in line with what was anticipated, and then providing a forward look for the year ahead that’s trying to be reasonably prudent and leaving room for potential outperformance. So this definitely is Walmart being Walmart.
ROGER: All right. And looking back on the quarter, any surprises or any numbers that caught your eye?
MICHAEL: There were no surprises. Maybe that was the key takeaway. This was, I would say, straight down the middle of what was anticipated. It shows that Walmart’s working and operating at a very high level. The model — which is to drive stability in the core business of selling groceries and general merchandise and layering on profitability benefits from deploying automation, as well as new business streams that are very high margin — all of that is working quite well at this point. It is reflected in the valuation, and the stock’s had a bit of a move. But we think over time, as the company continues to execute this strategy, the shares will respond favourably.
ROGER: And then looking ahead, should we read into this as being an indicator — I know we just said Walmart being Walmart — is there an indicator of how the U.S. economy is shaping up over the next year?
MICHAEL: I think the indicator, or the signal from Walmart, is that right now everything is steady. Whether or not that continues, we’re all banking on external factors like the labour market, so we’ll watch that closely over the months and quarters ahead. But as far as the health of the U.S. consumer right now, the key takeaway is that trends are quite stable, and we would, in fact, expect that to pick up a little bit as these tax refunds are distributed to households in the coming weeks, and there is a high propensity to spend those dollars.
ROGER: And where do you see Walmart focusing over the next year? What’s their priority, do you think?
MICHAEL: I think there’s a couple priorities. One is continuing to take share. It has done a remarkable job of doing that, especially through its online channel. Its online growth in the most recent quarter was 27 per cent. There’s just not many retailers, especially of the size of Walmart, who will have generated that type of growth in the fourth quarter. Number two, continuing to deploy its strategy on automation and alternative revenue streams. And then number three, infuse a deep sense of agility within the organization. As we all know, the world is changing remarkably fast. This is a large business with more than $700 billion of sales. At times, that can be difficult to remain nimble. So I think the key for Walmart from here is to remain agile and change with a changing landscape.
ROGER: Just on — we’ll touch on that first — is a company this large capable of being agile?
MICHAEL: Without a doubt, and that’s what makes it pretty remarkable. It’s operating right now from a position of strength, with momentum in the business, good sales growth, a very effective and prudent strategy, and a new leadership team that is bringing a renewed focus and a slightly different perspective to the organization. Some of the reasons for why these leaders were chosen was because of the speed and agility at which they operate, so that should act as a catalyst to help speed up the ability for this organization to remain nimble in the environment.
ROGER: And then going back to the online — you said it was, I think, 27 per cent growth — was that because it had room to grow, or it just did a really good job?
MICHAEL: It’s done a really good job. It has a $100 billion GMV business online in the United States. So it is operating at scale right now, and yet it’s still growing very fast as it captures more customers and more spend from customers.
ROGER: And is it getting — I mean, traditionally, we think of the average Walmart shopper as the average American, almost. Is it getting that higher end? Is it working that as they try to bring them in?
MICHAEL: Both of those are true, meaning the Walmart customer base looks a lot like the U.S. population at large, and where it is seeing a disproportionate amount of market share gain is amongst those more affluent consumers, who tend to spend a bit more online and more overall. So that is encouraging for the Walmart investment case.
ROGER: And what kind of growth have they seen in that market?
MICHAEL: They haven’t clarified that, but it is the very largest portion of the overall market share gains that Walmart’s been achieving. So if it’s been growing a couple hundred basis points above other retailers out there, a good portion of that is coming from the high end.
ROGER: Okay, Michael, we have to wrap it up there. But thank you very much for joining us.
MICHAEL: Have a good day.
ROGER: You too. Michael Lasser is an equity research analyst at UBS.
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This BNN Bloomberg summary and transcript of the Feb. 19, 2026 interview with Michael Lasser are published with the assistance of AI. Original research, interview questions and added context was created by BNN Bloomberg journalists. An editor also reviewed this material before it was published to ensure its accuracy and adherence with BNN Bloomberg editorial policies and standards.
