Gold’s surge has drawn investor attention, but its next move may be more measured as valuations stretch and markets stabilize.
BNN Bloomberg spoke with Philip Petursson, chief investment strategist at IG Wealth Management, who said investors should stay disciplined as gold consolidates and the broader market continues to find strength in earnings and economic growth.
Key Takeaways
- Gold has climbed more than 50 per cent this year but may pause near current levels before its next move.
- Fair value estimates suggest gold’s upside is limited after its rapid appreciation.
- Petursson says inflation is likely to moderate into 2026, easing pressure on central banks.
- Strong corporate earnings continue to support equity markets despite valuation concerns.
- The U.S. economy is growing at about three per cent in real terms, creating a stable backdrop for investors.
Read the full transcript below:
ROGER: U.S. President Trump has terminated trade talks with Canada. Let’s get some perspective on what that could mean for markets with Philip Petursson, chief investment strategist at IG Wealth Management. Phil, thanks as always for joining us. Thought it was going to be a nice, quiet Friday — not much going on — then Donald Trump gets on social media and cancels, says the talks are off again. Thoughts on that? He must be a Dodgers fan.
PHILIP: Seriously. Look, I think this is anything they can do to extract leverage in the negotiations between the United States and Canada. From a market perspective, though, we have to take a step back and ask what has changed — and really, nothing has changed. We remain in the status quo, in this limbo of tariffs. As long as it’s not getting worse, it really won’t have much of an impact on the direction of the Canadian economy beyond where we were already headed, and it certainly doesn’t affect the market.
ROGER: And with his comments and leverage, does it feel like there’s any left anymore with what he says?
PHILIP: It doesn’t seem like there is. He’s getting internal pressure from Republican governors affected by the tariffs, and there are senators who feel the same way. Companies I’ve spoken to are finding ways to adjust — whether by cutting costs or changing how they invoice, such as billing only the minimum tariffable portion of exports. We’ve found ways to mitigate some of the tariffs, and we know at some point those rates will likely move lower. That’s where things stand today.
ROGER: With steel and aluminum tariffs out of line, has he found a magic number for some of the others that people are willing to accept?
PHILIP: Looking at deals made elsewhere, we expect that agreements for Canada or other countries still negotiating will likely set permanent tariffs somewhere between 10 and 20 per cent. What does that mean? We don’t necessarily pay those tariffs — importers do. Companies such as Walmart have said they’ll pass those costs straight to consumers. About 70 per cent of tariffs are being passed on, by some estimates. This has effectively become a stealth consumption tax in the U.S.
ROGER: And today’s CPI came out pretty much on target?
PHILIP: In line with expectations, and consistent with where we see inflation heading over the next six to nine months. Our modelling suggests this is the upper range of inflation. We might see a slight uptick — maybe 0.1 or 0.2 per cent — toward year-end as tariffs are fully priced in, but it should moderate into 2026. I’m not sure we’ll hit the Fed’s two per cent target; our models show something between 2.5 and three per cent, which should be tolerable for the Fed. Remember, that two per cent target was somewhat arbitrary, set in 2012. Historically, U.S. inflation has tended closer to three per cent.
ROGER: So people can handle that?
PHILIP: Especially when the U.S. economy is growing at three per cent in real terms — and that’s what we’re seeing right now. Nominal growth is closer to six per cent. Real growth of three per cent alongside three per cent inflation is a decent economic environment.
ROGER: Let’s move on. It’s been a strong earnings season, and markets seem to be climbing again. Are we at the point where it’s hard to find any deals, or is there still room to find value?
PHILIP: Great question. We’re hearing that as well — are markets too high, are things too expensive? Not in the context of the earnings growth we expect. I worked with a gentleman years ago who said sometimes it’s OK to pay 100 cents on the dollar if the company is growing at an above-average rate. That’s what we’re seeing now. You don’t always have to chase undervalued assets; sometimes you pay full price for great companies delivering strong earnings growth, and that’s sustainable for at least the next year or more.
ROGER: Is that largely the tech sector?
PHILIP: Largely, yes. And relatively speaking, they’re not that expensive — certainly not at 2000 levels, which is a comparison we often hear. This is a different environment. These companies are generating real earnings, have solid cash flow, and are reinvesting in the AI infrastructure boom. That investment will deliver productivity gains, economies of scale, and real earnings growth for the foreseeable future.
ROGER: And where does gold fit in? We saw a dip this week, it’s calmed a bit, but still on a slight downward trend.
PHILIP: Exactly.
ROGER: Will it stay near $4,000 or start climbing again? What should investors do with it?
PHILIP: I think you continue to hold it in a measured weight within a portfolio. We don’t want to rush into gold right now. It’s had a great run year-to-date and over the past year — even with this pullback, it’s still up more than 50 per cent year-to-date and 60 per cent from a year ago. It remains attractive, but is it going to $6,000 soon? Probably not. It may hover here for a while. If you look at the chart, gold tends to consolidate — like it did in the summer — before another leg up. So, yes, we could see a period of consolidation before the next move higher.
More importantly, fair value for gold is lower than today’s price. We’re above what we’d call fair value, though not excessively. We wouldn’t get too greedy at this point.
ROGER: Philip, thanks as always for joining us. Have a great weekend. Philip Petursson, chief investment strategist at IG Wealth Management.
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This BNN Bloomberg summary and transcript of the Oct. 24, 2025 interview with Philip Petursson are published with the assistance of AI. Original research, interview questions and added context was created by BNN Bloomberg journalists. An editor also reviewed this material before it was published to ensure its accuracy and adherence with BNN Bloomberg editorial policies and standards.
