Gold prices could surge through the decade as fiscal pressures, central bank demand and portfolio shifts reshape the global market for metals. Some analysts see a structural “monetary regime change” underpinning the latest rally in bullion and mining stocks.
BNN Bloomberg spoke with David McAlvany, CEO and portfolio manager at McAlvany Financial Group, who said Orla Mining’s strong third quarter highlights growing investor confidence in gold producers as asset allocators move away from traditional bonds and tech-heavy portfolios.
Key Takeaways
- Gold prices could climb to US$8,600 by 2028 as debt risks and weak bonds drive investors toward metals.
- Central bank buying and fiscal imbalances are setting a higher price floor for gold.
- Orla Mining remains a value play with upside from Nevada’s South Railroad project.
- Miners could outperform as the market shifts from AI enthusiasm to commodities.
- Institutions and retail investors are increasing gold allocations amid a global debt squeeze.
Read the full transcript below:
ROGER: Shares of B.C.-based Orla Mining are trending upward after beating third-quarter forecasts. You can see it’s up almost 12 per cent right now. Let’s find out what drove the quarter. Joining me is David McAlvany, CEO and portfolio manager at McAlvany Financial Group. David, thank you very much for joining us.
DAVID: Great to be with you.
ROGER: What made for a good third quarter for Orla?
DAVID: I think the industry as a whole is benefiting from what is essentially a monetary regime change. Many investors don’t fully appreciate how significant this multi-year shift is. It involves both trade settlement and reserve asset management, particularly as central banks move in the direction of gold. That’s ultimately very supportive of higher prices and a much higher floor for gold. That’s a key factor in gold’s performance, and it drives Orla’s performance as well.
Investor adoption is still in the early stages, but we’ve begun to see Western investors take an interest in metals, particularly the miners. We think we’re at the front edge of that. So I’d suggest we have many years ahead of higher gold prices and better performance for Orla.
Orla is moving towards fair value. As the price of gold rises, we can adjust our NAVs higher. We have it at fair value at roughly $15 a share — $14.94 — assuming a US$3,800 gold price. So it still has room to move, even after a strong day like today. The big transformative change for the company will come with South Railroad coming online — its Nevada assets over the next few years.
ROGER: What else do you like about it?
DAVID: The move toward more North American assets is key. Musselwhite is certainly helpful in their portfolio, but South Railroad will be important too. There’s some optionality from the Panamanian assets, though we’re taking a wait-and-see approach with anything in Panama.
ROGER: How does it compare with other gold mining companies?
DAVID: From a price-to-earnings perspective, it’s quite inexpensive — very attractive from that standpoint. We like to buy things when they’re cheap. Nothing in the space is especially cheap anymore, but if we can stabilize the gold price around US$4,000, there’s room to move the NAV higher for Orla. We see it as a company that will likely outperform. It has great management and assets, and a mine plan they can revise for Camino Rojo, which could be positive in 2026.
ROGER: You mentioned management. What do you like about them?
DAVID: Capital allocation decisions are always key, and this space is often plagued by poor ones — particularly when gold prices rise. It’s as if rationality gets checked at the door, and reserve replacement becomes the priority. Mergers and acquisitions happen at inflated metrics, and companies end up carrying reserves at too high a number.
We like Orla because it’s more conservative. I’d call it a little sister to Agnico Eagle, which is my preferred company in the space with the best management. But Orla is in the same family.
ROGER: As for gold itself, it’s sitting around US$4,100 today. Do you think there’s room for growth?
DAVID: I do. Looking ahead to 2026, we see price targets closer to US$5,500. For 2027, we see US$6,500 to US$6,900, and by 2028, we think the spot price could reach US$8,600.
ROGER: Why do you see it moving that way — and fairly quickly?
DAVID: One of the key drivers is early in the adoption cycle: a shift in how asset allocators position portfolios. The old 60-40 model — 60 per cent equities and 40 per cent fixed income — is changing. Mike Wilson, a CIO at a major Wall Street firm, recently suggested a 60-20-20 mix, where half of fixed income is replaced by gold. That’s a profound shift.
We see metals as essential in a world where fixed income is increasingly impaired. This is a G20 issue, a G10 issue, and especially a U.S. issue if you look at debt-to-GDP levels. Governments aren’t managing fiscal households well. We’re in a global debt crisis with higher interest rates and lower bond prices ahead, and that will drive Wall Street’s interest in gold as an anti-fragile asset.
ROGER: Do you see others following that lead?
DAVID: I think so. I’ve talked to a number of endowments and pension funds — they’re hesitant to go as high as 20 per cent, but even moving from zero to five per cent is a big step. They’re recognizing they need exposure to gold.
Retail investors will also take notice. The outperformance of mining shares has been staggering — gold and silver are up 50 to 70 per cent year to date, and mining shares have climbed 100 to 130 per cent. That will get attention. As the fascination with AI fades, we’ll see more reallocation toward metals.
ROGER: David, thank you very much for joining us.
DAVID: Thank you, Roger.
ROGER: That’s David McAlvany, CEO and portfolio manager at McAlvany Financial Group.
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This BNN Bloomberg summary and transcript of the Nov. 12, 2025 interview with David McAlvany, are published with the assistance of AI. Original research, interview questions and added context was created by BNN Bloomberg journalists. An editor also reviewed this material before it was published to ensure its accuracy and adherence with BNN Bloomberg editorial policies and standards.
