U.S. inflation cooled more than expected in November, fuelling a rebound in equities and reinforcing expectations that interest rates could continue moving lower. Investors are balancing optimism over easing price pressures with questions around valuations, technology spending and the potential for increased volatility in the year ahead.
BNN Bloomberg spoke with Colin Cieszynski, portfolio manager and chief market strategist at SIA Wealth Management, about how the inflation data is shaping central bank expectations, the rebound in technology shares, and why political cycles and interest-rate sensitivity could drive choppier markets in 2026.
Key Takeaways
- November’s softer U.S. inflation reading reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve has room to keep cutting interest rates.
- Technology stocks rebounded after a pullback, helped by strong earnings and signs that short-term selling pressure has eased.
- Global central banks are diverging, with rate cuts in Europe contrasting with a likely hike in Japan.
- Artificial intelligence spending continues to support multiple sectors beyond technology, including utilities and semiconductors.
- Historical patterns suggest 2026 could bring increased volatility as political cycles and valuation concerns come into focus.
Read the full transcript below:
ANDREW: We received U.S. inflation data showing price pressures cooled in November, raising hopes the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates again. Let’s get more from Colin Cieszynski, portfolio manager and chief market strategist at SIA Wealth Management. Colin, thanks for joining us.
COLIN: Thanks. Good morning, Andy.
ANDREW: We won’t spend too much time on U.S. inflation, because we keep hearing commentary that the data is distorted.
COLIN: I think we saw more distortion in the employment numbers, in particular, because you had large numbers of layoffs followed by people coming back. That was yesterday. Today, inflation is much broader than just the government. So while it may be somewhat distorted, it’s definitely encouraging. It came in well below expectations and showed inflation remains benign. If the Fed needs to, inflation is not blocking it from cutting interest rates if it wants to continue next year.
ANDREW: Do you pay close attention to interest-rate policy, Colin?
COLIN: Generally, I do, especially in terms of how it works through currencies and commodity prices. It doesn’t always translate one-to-one into the stock market, particularly in Canada. Today is an interesting example. The Bank of England cut rates, but it was a very close vote. The European Central Bank held rates, which was widely expected, and its benchmark rate is now close to two per cent, similar to Canada. They’ve already cut significantly. The interesting one tonight is the Bank of Japan, which is expected to raise rates from 0.5 per cent to 0.75 per cent. That’s the opposite direction, but rates there are still far lower than elsewhere.
ANDREW: They’re coming from a very low base. What are your thoughts on the markets with just over a week left in December? Do you expect continued selling in names like Oracle or Broadcom?
COLIN: It’s been looking that way, but what’s interesting is that after being down most of the week, the market looks like it may be staging a Santa Claus rally. It’s still early, but many investors who wanted to sell those names have already had the chance. A lot of big-cap technology stocks have been down several days in a row, and following this inflation report, we’re seeing a relief rally. We also saw a boost in Nasdaq stocks overnight after Micron’s earnings. Micron delivered a very strong report, and this time the market is responding positively. That suggests some tech stocks may have been washed out in the short term and are now bouncing.
ANDREW: Let’s look at Micron. It’s been something of an investor favourite. The stock is up sharply in early trading. This has been quite a year, hasn’t it, with massive projections and spending plans tied to artificial intelligence?
COLIN: Absolutely. AI has been one of the biggest stories of the year. We’ve seen it drive markets higher, and corrections in AI have pulled markets lower. It’s added volatility, but also a lot of strength. This is a huge, long-term investment, and it’s not just software. It’s everything behind it. Utilities, for example, have done very well because of the power demand coming from data centres. There’s also demand for semiconductors and related infrastructure. This investment wave has underpinned the market across many sectors, not just the high-profile technology names.
ANDREW: Let’s put up a one-year chart for Meta. Mark Zuckerberg has made major bets on AI, and some investors worry the spending may be too aggressive. The stock is still below its highs.
COLIN: That’s the trade-off. Some companies are generating revenue from AI, while others are still in the spending phase. With Meta, we’ve seen this before. They invest heavily, revenues don’t show up right away, and then when they do, the stock can surge. Right now, it feels like we’re in that in-between phase, where investors are waiting to see how the returns materialize.
ANDREW: Zuckerberg also made big bets on the metaverse that didn’t pan out as expected.
COLIN: Not to the extent he envisioned, no.
ANDREW: What about pipeline stocks? Give us your view on TC Energy and Enbridge. They’ve had a strong run.
COLIN: Pipeline stocks are very interest-rate sensitive, so they’ve benefited from falling rates on both sides of the border. TC Energy has run into some resistance recently, but it’s also had a big move. I think what we’re seeing is partly tied to the Bank of Canada pausing after a series of rate cuts. These stocks have had a strong run and are now consolidating.
ANDREW: Looking ahead to 2026, is there something investors may not be fully prepared for?
COLIN: I look to the presidential cycle. Year two is historically one of the more volatile periods. Presidents tend to push popular policies early, while opposition intensifies ahead of congressional elections. During President Trump’s first term, 2017 was very strong for markets, but 2018 was choppy and largely sideways before rebounding in 2019. For 2026, the big question is whether markets continue higher or move into a period of valuation concerns and sideways volatility, similar to what we’ve seen over the past six weeks.
ANDREW: Colin, we’ll leave it there. If we don’t speak again this year, have a great holiday season.
COLIN: Thanks. Happy holidays and happy New Year.
ANDREW: That’s Colin Cieszynski, portfolio manager and chief market strategist at SIA Wealth Management.
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This BNN Bloomberg summary and transcript of the Dec. 18, 2025 interview with Colin Cieszynski are published with the assistance of AI. Original research, interview questions and added context was created by BNN Bloomberg journalists. An editor also reviewed this material before it was published to ensure its accuracy and adherence with BNN Bloomberg editorial policies and standards.
