As investors navigate a new year marked by geopolitical uncertainty and shifting rate expectations, questions are emerging about whether it’s time to rotate into laggards or stay with assets that have already delivered strong returns.
BNN Bloomberg spoke with Tony Ciero, president and chief investment officer at Caldwell Asset Management, a division of Caldwell Securities, about why he believes Canadian banks, U.S. equities and gold remain supported by economic and policy tailwinds heading into 2026.
Key Takeaways
- Investors may benefit from sticking with assets that continue to benefit from falling interest rates and supportive economic conditions.
- Canadian banks remain supported by improving loan loss provisions, a steeper yield curve and continued growth in wealth management.
- U.S. equities continue to benefit from low rates, tax policy and ongoing business and AI infrastructure investment.
- Gold remains attractive as a hedge against geopolitical risk and a weaker U.S. dollar.
- Select technology names tied to cloud computing may regain momentum as tariff concerns ease and enterprise demand grows.
Read the full transcript below:
ANDREW: As we move into a new year, it may be tempting to think, “Well, I’m going to buy the dogs of last year.” Our guest says it might be best to stick with the winners of 2025. We’re joined by Tony Ciero, president and chief investment officer at Caldwell Asset Management. Tony, great to see you. Thanks very much indeed for joining us. So, stick with the winners. You say, for example, that Canadian banks and U.S. stocks still look good this year.
TONY: Yes, they do. Happy New Year, Andrew. Pleasure seeing you again. Absolutely. And why the Canadian banks? We look across the board — last year they were up about 30 per cent or so, led by Royal Bank. TD actually had a nice rebound. So, if you bought the loser in 2024 in 2025, you did quite well.
But the reasons start with interest rates. Interest rates are coming down in Canada. There was a hold the last time the Bank of Canada met, but the expectation is that interest rates will continue to be cut. That’s going to improve banks’ loan loss provisions. Some of the issues banks suffered a couple of years ago came when rates were higher and they were putting more money aside for potential bad loans down the road, which takes away from the bottom line.
Now, also with interest rates coming down, you start seeing a steepening of the yield curve, meaning short-term rates are lower than long-term rates, and that bodes very well for banks’ net interest margin ratios, which is a key metric when we look at earnings on a quarterly basis.
Why does the net interest margin ratio increase? Well, banks lend you money long term. When you take out a mortgage, it’s 30-plus years. When you invest with them, well, GICs are one to five years. That spread in the yield curve allows banks to make a premium.
And finally, the wealth management divisions across all the major banks here in Canada did quite well last year. Just think about the asset management side — if investment assets went up 10 to 20 per cent because of market growth last year, that means more fee revenue this year. So, definitely Canadian banks continue to play.
U.S. equities — the economy is still conducive to growth. Low interest rates, tax cuts and business spending are all supportive. And when you look at AI infrastructure spending, it continues to be prominent and will eventually add more to the overall economy.
And one more — gold. Gold did quite well last year, up about 60 per cent, but there are no signs of a slowdown. As the U.S. dollar continues to weaken, and with ongoing geopolitical risk, investors tend to flock to gold, and prices could continue to rise.
ANDREW: What about the big AI names? What’s your feeling there, Tony?
TONY: Yeah, there are two that we like and continue to like, and they were sort of the laggards last year. So, if you want to buy something that’s down in price or didn’t perform as well, Amazon is our top pick.
When you look at Amazon, you have to look at AWS, the cloud computing platform. I actually had someone ask me the other day, “What is cloud computing anyway?” Before computers, everything was paper-based and stored in filing cabinets. Then companies moved to computers, with massive servers behind locked doors, full of blinking lights and wiring, where data was stored.
Cloud computing replaces those servers. You no longer need them because everything is moved to the cloud. More and more businesses are going that route, which bodes well for cloud platforms like AWS and Microsoft’s Azure.
Amazon didn’t do as well last year because of the threat of tariffs. Its e-commerce platform was affected because tariffs would have increased prices on goods sold online. But now that the rhetoric has eased somewhat, we’ll see whether e-commerce revenues pick up again as consumers become more comfortable buying online.
ANDREW: Broadly speaking, do you think investors will look askance at Canada this year because of Trump’s threats to our sovereignty? And of course, we’re vulnerable on the trade front. We have a very open economy.
TONY: There are many views on that, including some pretty wild ones. Some suggest Venezuela could be a prelude to broader action in the Caribbean, then you look at Denmark with Greenland, and potentially Canada because of our resources.
I don’t want to go too far down that rabbit hole. In the grand scheme of things, what Trump did in Venezuela was ousting a dictator who was bad for the country, and that’s one reason markets responded positively. It also freed up some oil supply, which markets liked.
But let’s hope it doesn’t go further down that path, as many are concerned about potential implications for places like Greenland and Canada.
ANDREW: Tony, thank you very much indeed. Tony Ciero, president and chief investment officer at Caldwell Asset Management.
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This BNN Bloomberg summary and transcript of the Jan. 7, 2026 interview with Tony Ciero are published with the assistance of AI. Original research, interview questions and added context was created by BNN Bloomberg journalists. An editor also reviewed this material before it was published to ensure its accuracy and adherence with BNN Bloomberg editorial policies and standards.
