Canada’s oil sector is navigating renewed volatility as developments involving the U.S. and Venezuela raise questions about global supply, pricing and investor sentiment. Early 2026 trading has also brought sharper moves across commodities and Canadian equities, even as risk appetite remains selective.
BNN Bloomberg spoke with Kelsey Keane, director of equity capital markets at National Bank of Canada, about investor sentiment toward Canadian energy, commodity trends and expectations for equity issuance activity in 2026.
Key Takeaways
- Weakness in Canadian oil stocks is largely sentiment-driven, while producer fundamentals remain intact despite renewed supply concerns tied to Venezuela.
- Canada’s oil industry offers a lower-risk investment environment with reliable reserves and improving access to global markets through potential export diversification.
- Continued volatility is likely as investors respond to geopolitical developments and key economic data, including employment, inflation and earnings.
- Strength in copper reflects electrification demand, trade-related supply risks and constrained inventories, while metals broadly benefit from global uncertainty.
- Canadian IPO activity is poised to rebound in 2026, supported by stronger equity conditions and a growing pipeline of potential issuers.
Read the full transcript below:
ROGER: As we continue to monitor the news coming out of the U.S. and Venezuela, Canada’s oil sector is facing renewed questions about whether Venezuelan crude could compete with or even displace Canadian barrels. Let’s get more on this now from Kelsey Keane, director of equity capital markets at the National Bank of Canada. Kelsey, thanks as always for joining us. Happy New Year.
We spoke just a few days ago, but welcome back. What are your thoughts on oil companies right now? They took a hit to start the week with everything that’s unfolded in Venezuela. Are cooler heads prevailing?
KELSEY: Yes. I think the first week of 2026 has brought a lot of oil-related news. Initially, we were looking ahead to OPEC, and now there’s the news about what the U.S. is doing in Venezuela. I think a lot of the reaction we’re seeing in these stocks is sentiment-driven. The fundamentals for Canadian oil producers remain strong.
ROGER: What gives you that confidence? What do you like about them?
KELSEY: When we think about Venezuela, they also have significant reserves of heavy crude oil, which is what Canada produces as well. But when you look at the two investment landscapes, Canada is much stronger. For those looking to deploy capital into the oil industry, Canada provides a lower-risk market with access to global markets. This is a real opportunity for our government to advance pipeline development and put more investment into the industry.
ROGER: Two of the big advantages, of course, are proven reserves and relatively reliable reserve data. Much of Canada’s production is maintenance-focused, whereas Venezuela could be facing a massive rebuild.
KELSEY: That’s right. If we look at what’s happened in Venezuela over the past 15 to 20 years, there’s been a significant decline in production. They’re almost starting from scratch, whereas Canada is much further ahead. Over the longer term, we could see production come back online in Venezuela, but Canada needs to focus on advancing the resources we already have.
ROGER: If that so-called “magical pipeline” to the West Coast were built, would there be demand for it? The argument has been that demand may not be there, but if we build it, does the demand follow?
KELSEY: Yes, I believe so. A lot of those exports are expected to go to Asia. That highlights another important point for Canada’s oil industry: the need to diversify exports and look beyond the U.S. as a destination for our resources.
ROGER: Some Venezuelan oil has been going to China, and it appears some still will. Could Canada potentially replace Venezuela in supplying China if geopolitical dynamics shift?
KELSEY: I think there’s an opportunity there. Prime Minister Mark Carney is in China now, so there’s still a lot up in the air, but I think Canada should be looking at all available opportunities.
ROGER: Turning to prices more broadly, where do you see them heading over the next year?
KELSEY: A year is a long time, but I think we’ll continue to see near-term volatility because there seems to be a new development every day. That said, there is underlying confidence in the Canadian industry, and we likely need to see more risk appetite return to the sector.
ROGER: Let’s shift to metals. Copper has continued to climb, even as gold and silver have seen more volatility. What’s driving that?
KELSEY: A lot of that strength followed news around tariffs and the depletion of inventories. There’s also the broader electrification trend supporting demand. Copper hit record highs and has pulled back slightly, but there’s still underlying strength and supportive fundamentals.
ROGER: Supply has also been an issue, with challenges developing new mines and labour disruptions, including a strike in Chile.
KELSEY: That’s right. With commodities, you always need to consider both supply and demand. Demand has been strong, and ensuring adequate supply will be critical.
ROGER: Any concerns about bringing new supply online?
KELSEY: It’s hard to say right now, but given the strengthening economy and evolving trade environment, I think governments globally will be putting more resources into supporting production.
ROGER: Finally, let’s talk IPOs. Are you expecting activity to pick up this year?
KELSEY: Yes. Canada is set for a rebound in IPO activity, which has been a long time coming. There’s a growing pipeline of Canadian issuers looking to list on the TSX. Broader equity markets have shown strength, and several IPOs in 2025 were completed successfully. That puts us in a good position heading into 2026.
ROGER: Any sectors expected to lead?
KELSEY: We’re seeing interest across sectors. Industrials look strong, defence has seen momentum recently, and AI-related themes continue to attract attention. Energy has been volatile, but materials remain strong. Broadly, investors are looking to deploy capital, and companies with stable growth and earnings are well positioned to go public.
ROGER: We’ll have to leave it there. Kelsey, thanks as always.
KELSEY: Thank you, Roger.
ROGER: That was Kelsey Keane, director of equity capital markets at the National Bank of Canada.
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This BNN Bloomberg summary and transcript of the Jan. 8, 2026 interview with Kelsey Keane are published with the assistance of AI. Original research, interview questions and added context was created by BNN Bloomberg journalists. An editor also reviewed this material before it was published to ensure its accuracy and adherence with BNN Bloomberg editorial policies and standards.
