Despite ongoing concerns about tariffs, political risk and a potential AI bubble, U.S. stocks continue to push higher, supported by broad participation and improving fundamentals. Historical trends suggest the current cycle may have further room to run, even with bouts of volatility along the way.
BNN Bloomberg spoke with Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group, about why expanding market breadth, earnings growth and global participation could support U.S. equities through 2026.
Key Takeaways
- Market gains have broadened beyond the largest technology stocks, with most S&P 500 companies contributing meaningfully to recent returns.
- Bull markets historically last several years, and performance often improves after the choppy third year of a cycle.
- Volatility remains normal for equities, with corrections of 10 to 15 per cent common even during strong up years.
- Cyclical sectors tend to benefit as economic growth persists, while leadership rotates away from narrow concentration.
- Rising corporate earnings and profit margins continue to underpin the case for U.S. stocks in 2026.
Read the full transcript below:
ANDREW: Despite worries over tariffs and a possible AI bubble, U.S. markets had a stellar year in 2025 and are sitting at new highs today. Our guest says he was one of the few people who was bullish three years ago and remains optimistic about stocks. Let’s get more from Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group. Ryan, great to see you. Have a great 2026 before we get going.
RYAN: Thank you for having me back, Andrew. I appreciate it. Happy New Year to everybody.
ANDREW: For the year ahead, you are broadly bullish on global markets?
RYAN: Yeah, we are. Just yesterday, on Thursday, the Carson investor research team released our 2026 market outlook. We titled it “Riding the wave.” When you think about it, there’s monetary policy moving us forward, fiscal policy is probably positive, and of course AI and all the AI capital spending.
Big picture, though, what you just talked about right before I joined — yes, the U.S. is hitting some of the highest levels it has ever hit in history right now. But look around the globe. Asia had an incredible run. Obviously Canada — and your listeners know that — had a really good year last year, hitting all-time highs. Europe as well.
I mean, it’s not just a U.S. story. Of course, I’m in the U.S., so we focus on the U.S., but it’s really important for people to remember this is a global bull market. We do not think it’s over. We think the rest of the globe is going to keep doing well this year, along with the United States.
ANDREW: If we look at a comparative chart for the S&P 500 versus the Nasdaq 100 — using the latter as a proxy for tech stocks — we can see the Nasdaq 100 soared. But you say it’s not fair to say the U.S. market is just being driven higher by tech.
RYAN: That’s right. What we’ve heard for years is that it’s only seven stocks going up — the so-called Magnificent Seven — and they’re responsible for all the gains.
But something a lot of people don’t realize is that last year, if you look at the other 493 stocks, they were up over 10 per cent and actually accounted for more of the gains than the Magnificent Seven. About seven per cent of the gains came from the Magnificent Seven.
That’s a long-winded way of saying we saw more gains coming from the rest of the market last year. It was the first time in three years we’ve seen that, and it’s really important.
Look at yesterday, for example. It was a crazy day. Ten sectors were up in the United States. Technology was down more than one per cent, yet the broader market was basically flat and took it in stride.
So many people think if tech cracks, the whole market has to go down. But the lifeblood of a bull market is rotation. When we look around and see industrials doing well, financials doing well, materials doing well — and even health care starting to take some leadership — that’s a healthy sign. The baton is being passed around, and it’s not just seven stocks anymore.
ANDREW: And you also say bull markets tend to last longer than many people expect?
RYAN: That’s right. This one, at least in the United States, just had its third birthday back in October. Historically, the third year of a bull market is usually pretty choppy, and that fits last year perfectly.
The fourth year, however, is usually strong. When a bull market gets to this point, and you look at the S&P 500 over the past 50 years, the average length has been about eight years. The shortest was five years.
We’re not calling for double-digit gains every year, but the key concept is that this bull market isn’t young, but it’s certainly not old.
On top of that, look at Germany. The DAX only broke above its 2007 highs early last year. Many global markets went nowhere for 15 or 16 years and are now breaking out again. That suggests some of these global markets may still be in the early innings.
ANDREW: But there are going to be disappointments in AI, aren’t there? Concerns about debt loads at companies like Oracle and OpenAI could trigger some sharp selloffs.
RYAN: I don’t disagree at all. Since 1980, the average year for the S&P 500 has seen about a 14-per-cent peak-to-trough correction. I don’t think this year will be much different.
We’re probably going to see a 10-to-15-per-cent correction at some point. Our target for this year is an S&P 500 gain of 12 to 15 per cent, so it’s going to be volatile and rocky.
That’s why we’re more evenly weighted in technology. We think other areas may do better — specifically cyclicals like industrials, financials, energy and parts of materials. Those areas still look really attractive to us and could outperform tech, and that’s not a bad thing.
ANDREW: Is there any part of the equity market you’re less keen on right now?
RYAN: Small caps. We’re a little underweight small caps. They’ve had a good start to the year, but we’ve seen these fits and starts before.
We do have exposure, but we think large caps over small caps is the way to go. More broadly, we like cyclicals over pure defensives, such as staples. Health care is mixed — there are some areas like biotech that are improving — but overall, we prefer higher-beta, cyclical areas that tend to do better if the economy performs well.
ANDREW: What about the U.S. midterm elections? If Republicans do poorly, could that disturb the market?
RYAN: Oh boy, you’re going to get me in trouble talking politics. But historically, midterm years can be rocky. The last two, in 2018 and 2022, were rough for U.S. markets.
Typically, the party in power loses seats. Republicans have a very slim majority in the House right now, so losing control is possible. The Senate could remain close.
That said, we’ve had a split Congress for much of the past decade, and the S&P 500 has tended to perform well. There’s an old saying that gridlock is good for markets. Still, investors should be aware that midterm years often bring more volatility.
ANDREW: Greed is good, as the saying goes, and so is gridlock, it seems. Ryan, thank you very much. Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group.
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This BNN Bloomberg summary and transcript of the Jan. 9, 2026 interview with Ryan Detrick are published with the assistance of AI. Original research, interview questions and added context was created by BNN Bloomberg journalists. An editor also reviewed this material before it was published to ensure its accuracy and adherence with BNN Bloomberg editorial policies and standards.
