Many investors expect 2026 to deliver stronger U.S. economic momentum as policy uncertainty fades, tax cuts arrive and rate cuts take effect. But those expectations may be running ahead of reality, with growth likely to remain steady rather than meaningfully reaccelerate.
BNN Bloomberg spoke with Jack Janasiewicz, portfolio manager and lead portfolio strategist at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions, about why tax cuts may have limited impact, how cooling inflation could influence Federal Reserve policy and where investors may still find opportunities.
Key Takeaways
- Expectations for a sharp U.S. growth reacceleration in 2026 may be too optimistic, with economic momentum likely to remain steady rather than accelerate.
- Tax cuts are expected to provide only limited support, as households tend to save or pay down debt rather than fully spend incremental income.
- Cooling rents, slower wage growth and easing labour demand point to continued disinflation, potentially giving the Federal Reserve more flexibility to cut rates.
- Equity leadership is becoming more uneven, with widening dispersion between winners and losers, particularly within technology and AI-related stocks.
- Cyclical sectors and selective commodity exposure may benefit from infrastructure spending, AI buildouts and defence-related demand.
Read the full transcript below:
ANDREW: Many investors think 2026 will be a year of acceleration for the U.S. economy, with less policy uncertainty and, of course, the so-called One Big Beautiful Bill bringing tax cuts. Our guest says those hopes may be a little exaggerated. Let’s get more from Jack Janasiewicz, portfolio manager and lead portfolio strategist at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions.Jack, thanks very much indeed. So far, of course, U.S. corporate profits and the U.S. economy are holding up pretty well, despite signs of weakness in the job market. But you think there may be too much optimism about U.S. growth?
JACK: Yeah, there’s a couple of things at play here. And I think when you’re talking about the impacts from the One Big Beautiful Bill, and a lot of that coming back in terms of tax returns to the consumer, the idea is that people are expecting all of these tax returns basically to be spent. When you go back in history and look at that, that’s not the case.
Especially during COVID, for example, we saw roughly 40 cents on the dollar was spent, and the rest of it was either saved or used to pay down debt. So at the margin, it’s going to be supportive. We’re just not quite as optimistic.
When we start to look at some of these GDP estimates that are pushing north of, you know, 2.7, 2.8, we’re probably closer to two per cent, two and a quarter. That’s still a very good backdrop, but not quite as aggressive as some competitors are pointing out.
ANDREW: And when you look at the real estate market, you see weakness in rents?
JACK: Yeah, and I think that’s part of the inflationary backdrop. When you start to look at a lot of the real-time pricing that’s out in the marketplace — things like Zillow, ApartmentListings.com, some of the indices we see coming from regional Fed banks — they’re all pointing to the same thing, and that’s continued slowing in that portion of the marketplace.
We all know there’s a lag between that pushing through to the real data that’s being used in the inflation prints. As a result, we think that continues to put downward pressure on inflation. Moving closer to that two per cent target by the end of the year is our base-case scenario, and we think that should continue to play out.
ANDREW: What sectors of the market are you overweighting right now, Jack?
JACK: We have a couple of things going on. The big one is the uncertainty around the disruption regarding the AI trade. As a result, we’re trying to stay at least neutral there. It’s certainly a stock-picker’s market.
When you think about tech, you have pretty big dispersion in returns. Some of the winners are having really good numbers, and the losers are having really bad numbers, and some of that can cancel itself out. So we’re staying somewhat neutral on tech.
It still seems like the cyclical portion of the market is going to be a key beneficiary of the AI trade. We potentially could start to see productivity gains kicking in, maybe some margin improvement there. That really plays to areas like financials, industrials and, to a lesser extent, energy. That’s where we think we’ll continue to see strength into the end of the year.
ANDREW: When you say the cyclical part of the market, economically sensitive stocks such as industrials, for example, correct?
JACK: Yes.
ANDREW: It’s incredible. It’s something we should look into further. It must be so hard to find an electrical contractor in the U.S. right now, or somebody to put in copper wiring.
JACK: And I think we’re seeing that across the board with the labour market backdrop. We’re continuing to see slowing on the labour front. If you look at the data we saw last week — JOLTS showed job openings slower than expected, ADP came in softer than expected, weekly jobless claims ticked up a bit.
As you go through these numbers, you’re clearly seeing a slowing in the labour market, on top of the idea that some of these big AI data centre buildouts are pulling labour into that part of the marketplace. The immigration backdrop is certainly not helping areas like real estate.
There are plenty of headwinds coming from the labour market side, and that partially feeds into why the growth backdrop might not be as supportive as some think.
ANDREW: How about commodities — copper, for example, or copper-related plays? I’m thinking about mining stocks, like Freeport-McMoRan, for example — not necessarily that stock.
JACK: I think the backdrop for commodities is still pretty strong. You’ve got supply-and-demand imbalances, driven in part by the AI infrastructure buildout, whether it’s the data centres themselves or the electrical grid.
What’s maybe less appreciated is the defence stockpiling we’re likely to see. A lot of military upgrades are going to require raw materials. From that national security angle, we could see commodity prices remain supported, especially on the industrial side of the raw-materials equation.
ANDREW: Just swinging back to tech, you’re looking for companies that specifically gain from AI, but you’re less keen on the Magnificent Seven. You’re not overweighting those.
JACK: Yeah. Last year, the Magnificent Seven benefited from the benefit of the doubt. That started to change toward the end of the year, as investors questioned the scale of capital expenditures and what kind of return on invested capital they would actually get.
They’re putting up massive revenue numbers, but we’re starting to question margin growth and free cash flow, which may be coming back down. When you compare that to the broader market, the leadership gap has narrowed, and you’re seeing some re-rating.
It’s tough to make a broad call on the Magnificent Seven. You can still have big winners and losers, but those wide moats are starting to look more in line with the broader market.
ANDREW: Jack, thank you very much indeed for joining us.
JACK: Thank you.
ANDREW: Jack Janasiewicz, portfolio manager and lead portfolio strategist at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions.
---
This BNN Bloomberg summary and transcript of the Feb. 10, 2026 interview with Jack Janasiewicz are published with the assistance of AI. Original research, interview questions and added context was created by BNN Bloomberg journalists. An editor also reviewed this material before it was published to ensure its accuracy and adherence with BNN Bloomberg editorial policies and standards.
