Surging oil volatility and escalating tensions in the Middle East are highlighting broader geopolitical changes that could reshape global energy markets and investment strategies.
BNN Bloomberg spoke with Rebecca Teltscher, portfolio manager at New Haven Asset Management, who says shifting energy flows, rising commodity prices and potential liquidity stress could create new risks — and opportunities — for investors.
Key Takeaways
- The Middle East conflict reflects a broader geopolitical shift affecting global energy supply chains and investment trends.
- Energy disruptions across Russia, Venezuela and Iran are raising questions about China’s access to discounted oil and global supply stability.
- Energy-importing economies such as South Korea could face economic strain if higher energy prices disrupt manufacturing and technology production.
- Investors have been rotating out of high-valued technology stocks and into defensive sectors including infrastructure and utilities.
- Liquidity risks may be emerging in private credit and private equity funds, where redemption pressures could force asset sales during market stress.
Read the full transcript below:
ROGER: Amid surging oil volatility and geopolitical tension, my next guest says the conflict in the Middle East signals deeper geopolitical shifts that may reshape energy investing. Let’s hear more from Rebecca Teltscher, portfolio manager at New Haven Asset Management. Rebecca, thanks, as always, for joining us.
REBECCA: Thanks for having me.
ROGER: All right, elaborate on the shift that you think we’re going to be seeing.
REBECCA: Yeah, I mean, it’s been an interesting couple of days. And, you know, some of the issues that we’re seeing in the markets right now were actually playing out prior to the geopolitical escalation — notably the shift away from, let’s just say, software stocks and back into more defensive stocks, a shift away from U.S. equities and back into Canada. So that’s a shift that’s already been underway, and we’re continuing to see that play out.
With regard to the oil markets, we’ve already been seeing some disruptions happening in Russia over the past few years with the Russia-Ukraine conflict, then Venezuela and now Iran. So the question is, what does that mean for China? China has generally been the buyer of oil, mostly at a discounted rate with sanctions on Venezuela and Iran, and now with things escalating again in Russia.
So the question is, what does this mean for China and where does that play in? Are they suffering? How much storage do they have for energy, and when does that start getting depleted? We’re seeing that play out in the Korean market as well. That market’s down 18 per cent in the past few days, and that’s because they import 97 per cent of their energy.
So the question is, while they produce a lot of these memory chips needed for AI data centres, at what point does energy become a problem and they have to slow or halt production? So there are a lot of moving parts here.
And we didn’t even get into the idea of rising energy prices and what that’s going to do for the economy and inflation, because that’s another leg there. Then that goes into the discussion about interest rates. So I’m kind of spinning a little bit right now because those are all the things going on in my head at the same time.
ROGER: Well, and we’re trying to make estimates on things that may or may not happen. We heard from Trump, who said this war may go on weeks, maybe months. That scared the market yesterday. Today it’s a little calmer. How do you even make a prediction right now on which way this is going to go?
REBECCA: You can’t, right? That’s the problem. And I think the market, rightfully so, opened yesterday in a bit of a panic, and then throughout the day that panic seemed to subside.
Kind of like us, we’re sitting on the sidelines. We need more information before we’re going to start making any investment decisions about what to buy or sell. We’re just trying to assess more information. Capitulating and trying to guess what’s going to happen in the next few days doesn’t make sense.
Maybe for short-term traders they’re trying to capitalize on these situations. For us, we’re long-term investors, so we’d rather gather the information first before making a long-term decision.
We’re invested in the market, but we are defensive on a good day, and it feels really good to be defensive right now. Our stocks have not really seen that much volatility. If we do see more volatility in the next few days or weeks, there may be opportunities to add to our portfolio. But for now, we’re just sitting on the sidelines and watching as this unfolds.
ROGER: And how long do you think you want to sit for? Is there anything particular you’re looking for other than peace in our time, something like that which we may or may not hear? How long can you sit before you have to say we need to figure something out?
REBECCA: Markets are only down two per cent from their all-time highs. If you think about that in the grand scheme of things, that’s actually very little. I would want to see at least a 10 to 15 per cent correction before we start seeing valuations become cheaper.
Like I mentioned earlier, we saw this shift earlier this year away from high-valued tech and software companies and into more defensive stocks. As a result, the names that we like — the more defensive names, the infrastructure and asset-heavy businesses — have gotten fully valued.
We’re looking at pipelines and utilities, and they’re all trading at pretty high valuations relative to their historical averages. Before we start adding more, I want to see some of those valuations come off significantly — and not just for a day or an hour like what we’ve seen the past two days.
ROGER: And one of the things you’re staying away from right now — private equity and credit funds. Concerns there?
REBECCA: Yeah, that’s something I don’t think is getting enough headlines in the market with everything going on geopolitically. We’ve seen signs that there have been a lot of redemptions from some private credit funds, and some of these large private equity companies are having to inject their own capital to try to pay those redemptions.
The private market, to me, feels like a giant black box. It’s not very transparent. It’s hard to know exactly what’s inside some of these funds. It’s hard to know what the valuation of these loans are — whether they’re good loans or bad loans — and whether they’re liquid or not.
There’s a lot of questions there. What we’ve seen in the past is that when there is a scare in the market, or a scare around a specific asset, liquidity runs can happen fast and hard. So that’s another area I’m glad not to be a part of.
Just anecdotally, speaking with some clients or prospects, some of them have money invested in these private funds and they’re not able to get their money out. The redemptions have been locked or closed. It’s scary for someone who invested for retirement thinking this was a safe or diversified asset, only to be told they may not be able to get their money back.
ROGER: Okay, we have to wrap it up there. But Rebecca, thanks as always for joining us.
REBECCA: Thank you so much for having me. Have a great day.
ROGER: You too. Rebecca Teltscher, portfolio manager at New Haven Asset Management.
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This BNN Bloomberg summary and transcript of the March 4, 2026 interview with Rebecca Teltscher are published with the assistance of AI. Original research, interview questions and added context was created by BNN Bloomberg journalists. An editor also reviewed this material before it was published to ensure its accuracy and adherence with BNN Bloomberg editorial policies and standards.
