Oil prices remain volatile as geopolitical tensions and shifting global supply flows continue to influence investor sentiment and inflation expectations.
BNN Bloomberg spoke with Greg Halter, director of research at Carnegie Investment Counsel, about how oil volatility, artificial intelligence spending and sector valuations are shaping investment decisions.
Key Takeaways
- Oil prices have swung sharply as supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and policy changes around Russian crude add uncertainty to global energy markets.
- Energy stocks have risen but have not matched the pace of crude price increases, reflecting the tendency for commodities to move faster than equities.
- Artificial intelligence investment remains the dominant theme in technology, with strong fundamentals supporting large semiconductor and computing firms.
- Insurance stocks may offer value after years of strong pricing power, with some trading at valuations well below the broader market.
- Aging demographics and demand for medical procedures could support long-term growth in healthcare equipment makers.
Read the full transcript below:
ANDREW: We saw a drop in oil after the U.S. said it will allow the sale of some sanctioned Russian crude to avert an energy crisis. At the same time, barely any oil is moving through the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf. Let’s find out what this means for stocks. We’re joined by Greg Halter, director of research at Carnegie Investment Counsel. Greg, thanks very much for joining us. I know it’s a moving target, but are you tempted to adjust your portfolio in light of these wild swings in oil?
GREG: We really haven’t made a lot of overall adjustments to the portfolio. I would call it more fine-tuning along the way. As you pointed out, there’s lots of volatility, especially in the oil market. Generally, when that happens, you can see some dislocations in prices. I still think the AI trade and its impact on software has had more of an effect so far than what we’ve seen in the energy market, at least when it comes to some of the stocks and derivatives tied to those companies.
ANDREW: Let’s put up a one-year chart for Exxon as a benchmark. Bloomberg argues that we haven’t seen as big a rally as might be expected in these energy stocks. I mean, they are up.
GREG: Yeah, they’re definitely up. One of the names we look at more closely is Chevron, which is very similar to Exxon. The prices may have foreshadowed what was going to happen because they started moving up several months ago before we saw any big move in WTI, which was about US$55 only a couple of months ago. So you’re right — WTI went from about US$55 to US$110 or US$120, basically doubling. Now it’s back to around US$90 or so. The stocks have not doubled. Commodities tend to move a lot faster up and down than stock prices or the prices of goods and services.
ANDREW: What is your take on the so-called Magnificent Seven stocks? You did say that’s the bigger story overall. Do you think investors will start moving back into these huge companies that are spending heavily on hardware — companies like Meta and Amazon?
GREG: They are definitely spending a lot, and that has caused some concern because their free cash flow isn’t as strong as it had been. But when you look at the underlying fundamentals, we just had results from Nvidia and Broadcom in the last week or so, and the businesses behind those companies are incredibly strong. We were just marvelling at Nvidia’s free cash flow going from about US$4 billion to a projected US$200 billion in five years. I don’t think we’ve seen anything like that in the history of companies. It’s amazing. Unless the global economy falls off a cliff — and you never know with a war going on — we expect these big companies to continue doing well. Will they grow at the same rapid pace as before? Probably not. But they don’t need to, given where they’re trading now. Many of them have been relatively flat for the last year or so.
ANDREW: Is there a risk that there could be so much computing capacity available for AI that it won’t be justified by the profits companies earn from AI services? We could see price competition, for example.
GREG: No question, that’s possible. The answer is really unknowable. But I think it’s a case of build it and they will come. If you look at Amazon’s AWS cloud business, they’ve lowered prices dozens of times since it launched, yet it continues to grow at a tremendous rate. There is so much demand out there that computing capacity keeps getting filled. That’s been the history over the last 20 years.
ANDREW: You’re also seeing some attractive names in insurance — Progressive, Chubb and Kinsale Capital, among others. What draws you to those stocks?
GREG: I think it’s valuation. Those companies have seen very strong pricing for probably the past five years, and maybe they were over-earning during that period. Even Progressive has hinted at that. Pricing in the insurance business, like most industries, ebbs and flows. Right now it’s not as strong as it had been. But these stocks are trading at roughly 12 times earnings — about half the broader market multiple — for very good companies. And we don’t think insurance is going out of style anytime soon.
ANDREW: And it’s interesting — Chubb was reportedly approached by the White House to coordinate insurance for shippers travelling through the Strait of Hormuz. But that effort appears to have stalled because shipowners are worried about the safety of their crews.
GREG: Yes, I saw that story as well. Chubb is the one of the three companies we mentioned that has performed the best in the stock market. Progressive and Kinsale have been flat or down over the last year, while Chubb is hitting all-time highs. Chubb is also a much larger global business that can take on bigger risks. Progressive focuses primarily on auto insurance, and Kinsale operates more in the excess and surplus market for smaller accounts. They’re all insurance companies, but they operate in different niches, and the stocks reflect that.
ANDREW: Finally, Stryker, the medical equipment company. They make implants and other hospital equipment. The shares were hit by a cyberattack recently. Do you think that weakness could be an opportunity?
GREG: We do. The shares have been relatively flat over the past year. Stryker has a roughly US$129-billion market cap and trades at about 22 times earnings, which is roughly in line with the market multiple. But it has been a stellar company for about 40 years. It’s very well managed, and it makes smart acquisitions and integrates them effectively. Its Mako robotic surgery platform is gaining market share. As people age and want to remain active longer, there will be more demand for hip, knee and shoulder replacements. We think the company is well positioned.
ANDREW: Thank you very much. Really appreciate it, Greg.
GREG: Thank you for having me, Andrew.
ANDREW: Greg Halter, director of research at Carnegie Investment Counsel.
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This BNN Bloomberg summary and transcript of the March 13, 2026 interview with Greg Halter are published with the assistance of AI. Original research, interview questions and added context was created by BNN Bloomberg journalists. An editor also reviewed this material before it was published to ensure its accuracy and adherence with BNN Bloomberg editorial policies and standards.
