Copper prices are finding support as geopolitical tensions ease, but underlying supply constraints continue to shape the market’s trajectory.
BNN Bloomberg spoke with Charles Cooper, head of copper research at Wood Mackenzie, who discussed how global demand trends, geopolitical risks and supply disruptions are influencing copper.
Key Takeaways
- Copper prices are reacting to geopolitical developments, with easing Iran tensions providing short-term relief but leaving markets highly sensitive to new developments.
- Supply constraints remain a dominant force, with limited production growth continuing to underpin prices despite volatility.
- China remains the largest source of demand, though growth is expected to flatten over time as other regions take on a larger role.
- Prolonged geopolitical conflict could raise energy costs, increasing mining expenses and weighing on global economic demand.
- Production setbacks, including reduced guidance from major miners, highlight the fragility of supply in an already tight market.
Read the full transcript below:
MATT: Well, copper prices are seeing a little bit of relief after U.S. President Donald Trump suggested the war in Iran could wind down within the next few weeks. There is still some uncertainty, but we are seeing a rebound. For a broader look at the copper market, we are joined now by Charles Cooper, head of copper research at Wood Mackenzie. Charles, thanks for being with us.
CHARLES: Nice to meet you.
MATT: We’ve talked about the supply concerns that are still clearly evident, and at least for now there is still a lot of demand. Take us through what you’re seeing in the market and some of the impacts right now.
CHARLES: When we look at the copper market today, we’re really looking at the trade-off between what’s happening in the Gulf and the broader impact on the global economy. There’s uncertainty tied to the risk of a prolonged conflict, which reduces investor appetite for a strong global economy.
Donald Trump’s comments yesterday helped alleviate some concerns that there could be some form of resolution or end to the conflict. That’s taking some pressure off global uncertainty and bringing us back to where we were toward the end of last year, when copper prices were moving higher on fears of limited supply and strong demand.
MATT: And a lot of that demand is still there. China is key to the copper market, at least for now. Walk us through why.
CHARLES: Absolutely. China consumes roughly half of most commodities, and copper is no different. When we look at China, we consider the outlook tied to its new five-year plan, which is more consumer-driven compared to the heavy industrial growth seen in previous plans.
There is some concern that China’s economic growth is starting to slow. Over the next five years, and toward the end of this decade, we expect copper demand growth in China to flatten. That will likely be offset by growth in other regions, including Southeast Asia, ASEAN countries and potentially India.
MATT: And in the near term, with that two- to three-week timeline from Donald Trump and potential escalation in the Middle East, are we still expecting short-term volatility before things stabilize longer term?
CHARLES: Yes, the market will remain highly sensitive to news and statements from the White House. Many participants had been pricing in a conflict lasting perhaps two months, with a resolution by late April or early May.
If the conflict extends beyond that, it could significantly impact oil supply, potentially pushing oil prices higher for longer. That would raise costs for mining and extracting copper and other commodities, while also putting pressure on the global economy and demand for copper.
MATT: Let’s talk about Ivanhoe Mines. They’ve cut guidance on their flagship mine in the Congo. Does that look like a more conservative strategy to you?
CHARLES: It’s interesting. Ivanhoe and several other copper miners have seen share price pressure in recent weeks, largely tied to geopolitical risks.
The recent update from Ivanhoe highlights ongoing challenges following a seismic event last May that disrupted underground operations. The company has now reduced its 2026 guidance further, by roughly 90,000 tonnes from previous expectations.
They are effectively resetting their long-term ambitions to rebuild toward a 500,000-tonne-per-year producer, which would place them among the top global copper producers. But they will need to convince investors they can achieve that after last year’s disruptions.
MATT: Do you think that’s realistic at this point?
CHARLES: The company has made efforts to reassure investors through updated technical reports and engineering studies, suggesting it can gradually return to that production level.
They control one of the world’s largest copper resources, with potential to exceed 500,000 tonnes over the longer term. However, they need to demonstrate that last year’s issues were a one-time event.
MATT: Finally, on Glencore’s Horne smelter, why is it such a notable asset to the North American supply chain?
CHARLES: When you look at midstream processing, which China tends to dominate, having domestic smelting capacity allows a country to capture more value from its resources.
Copper smelters don’t just produce refined metal for manufacturing. They also generate important byproducts like sulphuric acid, which is used in fertilizers and mining processes, as well as critical minerals that are essential for the energy transition.
These capabilities are increasingly important for countries looking to strengthen their own supply chains and reduce reliance on external processing.
MATT: Certainly an important part of the broader picture. Charles Cooper, head of copper research at Wood Mackenzie. Thanks for your time today.
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This BNN Bloomberg summary and transcript of the April 2, 2026 interview with Charles Cooper are published with the assistance of AI. Original research, interview questions and added context was created by BNN Bloomberg journalists. An editor also reviewed this material before it was published to ensure its accuracy and adherence with BNN Bloomberg editorial policies and standards.
