Home sales in the Greater Toronto Area are beginning to recover after months of weakness, with March marking the first year-over-year increase in transactions in six months. The rebound comes as lower home prices and easing borrowing costs improve conditions for buyers.
BNN Bloomberg spoke with Jason Mercer, chief information officer at the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board, about the factors driving renewed activity, ongoing price pressures and how supply dynamics — particularly in the condo market — are shaping the outlook.
Key Takeaways
- Greater Toronto Area home sales rose on a year-over-year basis for the first time in six months, with gains also seen month over month after seasonal adjustment.
- Improved affordability, driven by lower home prices and easing borrowing costs, is bringing some buyers back into the market.
- High inventory levels continue to give buyers negotiating power, keeping downward pressure on prices despite rising sales.
- Condo supply remains a key source of weakness, with investor listings and softer rental demand adding to available units.
- A shift toward faster-built and mid-density housing, such as townhomes and modular construction, could help address supply gaps over time.
Read the full transcript below:
ANDREW: Home sales in the Greater Toronto Area showed signs of life in March, with an increase after six months of weakness. Prices, though, came under pressure, with the benchmark price hitting its lowest level since late 2020. We’re joined by Jason Mercer, chief information officer at the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board. Jason, great to see you.
JASON: Good morning.
ANDREW: Talk to us about the latest month. We did see an upturn in sales activity.
JASON: We saw a bit of an uptick, certainly on a year-over-year basis, and after seasonal adjustment, on a month-over-month basis as well. I think we’re starting to see some response to improved affordability over the past year. Home prices have been trending downward, along with borrowing costs by and large. A lot of households that have been on the sidelines are now saying that, when they look at their monthly mortgage payment relative to income, things have improved. They can also take advantage of substantial negotiating power in today’s market.
ANDREW: But the broad home price, the benchmark home price, which is a very broad measure, has hit its lowest level since late 2020.
JASON: Yes, and that’s representative of the amount of choice homebuyers have experienced over the past year or two. Even with sales ticking up in March, inventory levels remain much higher than what we consider normal, whether you’re looking at new listings or active listings. When you have that kind of choice, it gives buyers negotiating power, which continues to impact price.
ANDREW: It’s interesting we haven’t seen more of a recovery in prices, especially given interest rate cuts in Canada.
JASON: If we continue to see the trend from March, with sales up slightly and new listings trending lower, we’ll start to eat into standing inventory. If that continues for a few months, it could provide some support for pricing as we move into the second half of the year.
ANDREW: Are condos the main source of price weakness?
JASON: When you look at where we’ve seen a lot of new construction completions over the past couple of years, it has been in the condo space. As units complete, some investors look to sell. You also have end users who initially planned to move in but whose circumstances have changed, so those units are listed for sale.
ANDREW: We’ve heard talk of a condo crisis. Are units sitting unsold because sellers can’t get their price?
JASON: In the new home construction market, particularly condos, some units are aimed at end users, while others are aimed at investors who sell or rent them upon completion. We’ve also seen shifts in the rental market tied to changes in temporary migration. That has affected rental prospects and contributed to more listings coming onto the market.
ANDREW: In retrospect, was it a mistake to build so many small condos?
JASON: The model required investors to purchase units pre-construction and act as wholesalers, selling to end users or renting them out. Going forward, we may need to look more at “missing middle” housing — such as multiplexes and stacked townhomes — to bridge the gap between single-family homes and condo apartments. That may also require changes to how construction financing is structured.
ANDREW: That model left a lot of very small units.
JASON: We’ve seen willingness from federal and provincial governments to look at new policies for the housing market, including HST and development charges. There’s also an opportunity to rethink construction financing and the types of housing being built, whether that’s larger condo units or more mid-density housing.
ANDREW: You mentioned wood-frame construction?
JASON: Yes. For the type of housing we need going forward, mid-density “missing middle” housing could be built using wood-frame or modular construction. These methods can bring units to market more quickly than traditional high-rise concrete construction.
ANDREW: There’s interest in prefabricated housing as well.
JASON: That makes sense. As policy shifts toward these housing types, we’ll likely see more innovation — whether factory-built modular units or traditional wood-frame construction, or a combination of both.
ANDREW: How do townhomes compare to semi-detached homes?
JASON: Townhomes are generally more efficient to build because they share walls in a row. That makes low-rise construction more efficient. You also have stacked townhomes, which are a hybrid between townhouses and condo apartments.
ANDREW: What about development charges? Toronto is known for high costs that can add significantly to new home prices.
JASON: If federal and provincial governments help offset those costs, and savings are passed on to buyers, that could help bring more needed housing online. However, we haven’t seen strong pre-construction sales in recent years, which could lead to tighter conditions down the road unless faster-built housing types come online.
ANDREW: Jason, thanks very much.
JASON: Thank you.
ANDREW: Jason Mercer, chief information officer at the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board.
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This BNN Bloomberg summary and transcript of the April 7, 2026 interview with Jason Mercer are published with the assistance of AI. Original research, interview questions and added context was created by BNN Bloomberg journalists. An editor also reviewed this material before it was published to ensure its accuracy and adherence with BNN Bloomberg editorial policies and standards.
