First-quarter earnings are expected to come in stronger than anticipated, supported by resilient economic conditions. However, investor attention is shifting toward corporate guidance and the broader impact of global disruptions on future performance.
BNN Bloomberg spoke with Mike Vinokur, portfolio manager and senior wealth advisor at iA Private Wealth, who said markets are increasingly focused on second- and third-order effects from geopolitical tensions, including supply chain disruptions and cost pressures across industries.
Key Takeaways
- First-quarter earnings are expected to outperform, but guidance will be key for assessing the rest of the year.
- Investors are focused on second- and third-order impacts from geopolitical disruptions, not just headline events.
- Supply chain issues extend beyond energy to critical inputs like fertilizer, helium and industrial materials.
- Energy companies with refining exposure and long-life reserves are positioned to benefit from current conditions.
- Defensive opportunities are emerging in essential industries such as food production, pipelines and chemicals.
Read the full transcript below:
ANDREW: Let’s get more on the markets from one of our regulars, Mike Vinokur, portfolio manager and senior wealth advisor at iA Private Wealth. Mike, thanks for joining us.
MIKE: Pleasure to be here.
ANDREW: Any thoughts on the suspension of the excise tax on fuel? I guess politicians think that’s a vote-getter.
MIKE: Yeah, it’s definitely going to help prices at the pump, especially for lower-income households. We’ve all been feeling the pinch. We started the year at about $1.30 a litre, and recently we’ve seen around $1.75 or $1.80. For people who travel long distances to work and sit in traffic, that’s really been felt in their pocketbooks. It will be a welcome source of relief, although 10 cents will make only a small dent. It’s not the level of relief many consumers were hoping for.
ANDREW: Right. According to Bloomberg, gasoline prices nationally are up 27 per cent versus pre-war levels, so there has been a hit there. Mike, how are you positioning right now? Have you changed your portfolio at all since the war began?
MIKE: No, we’ve added a few small positions, but we’re still very conservative with a high cash position. We’re concerned not just about whether there’s a ceasefire, but about the second- and third-order effects and how this plays out over several quarters. There’s been a lot of destruction in the Middle East affecting supply chains, including LNG facilities, as well as backlogs in fertilizer, helium and other critical materials. It’s not just about oil. We don’t know how quickly these facilities can restart, what that means for prices longer term, and how it will affect business costs. We’re listening closely to earnings calls, starting with financials in the U.S. and moving through industrial and retail companies, to gauge how management teams see the back half of the year.
ANDREW: You have some stocks on your radar. What about Cenovus? Would you be a buyer right now?
MIKE: Yes, with a caveat. Seasonally, the strongest period for oil and gas stocks in Canada tends to run from December to May, and we’re nearing the end of that window. That said, we think there will be a repricing of geopolitical risk in favour of “safe” jurisdictions with long-term reserves. Cenovus benefits from long-life reserves and its refining business, where margins are very strong due to elevated crack spreads. That combination should be very positive for earnings, even if crude prices soften in the short to medium term.
ANDREW: Another stock you’re watching is Premium Brands. Why do you like it?
MIKE: When commodities are volatile, food production tends to be more stable. We like the business and the management team. The company has grown from about $500 million in revenue roughly 11 years ago to approaching $10 billion through organic growth and acquisitions. Management has been very effective at acquiring businesses at reasonable prices and extracting synergies. It pays a solid dividend of about four-and-a-half per cent, and we think it could generate earnings of around $8 per share in the near term. Trading at about 10 times earnings, with a strong dividend and proven growth strategy, we think it’s a compelling opportunity.
ANDREW: You mentioned a yield of about 4.1 per cent. Any other defensive areas you’re watching?
MIKE: We’re also focused on natural gas distribution, pipelines and chemicals — what you might call hard assets. These are essential businesses that the world relies on every day, but they’ve been overlooked as capital has flowed into technology and semiconductor stocks. Many of these companies are trading at attractive valuations, and we see opportunity there.
ANDREW: Thanks very much, Mike. Mike Vinokur, portfolio manager and senior wealth advisor at iA Private Wealth.
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This BNN Bloomberg summary and transcript of the April 14, 2026 interview with Mike Vinokur are published with the assistance of AI. Original research, interview questions and added context was created by BNN Bloomberg journalists. An editor also reviewed this material before it was published to ensure its accuracy and adherence with BNN Bloomberg editorial policies and standards.
