Markets are edging lower as investors take a wait-and-see approach to the Iran conflict, after a sharp rebound earlier in April. Rising energy costs and supply disruptions are beginning to ripple through inflation and corporate planning.
BNN Bloomberg spoke with Mike Vinokur, portfolio manager at Propellus Wealth Partners, iA Private Wealth, about how energy shocks, inflation pressures and sector positioning are shaping investment decisions.
Key Takeaways
- Markets have rebounded quickly to near prior highs despite geopolitical risks, raising questions about whether disruptions are fully priced in.
- Inflation in Canada rose in March due largely to fuel costs, with broader impacts on earnings expected as higher-cost inventory flows through.
- Prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could force companies to rethink supply chains, inventory levels and cash flow management.
- Demand for alternative energy sources, particularly for data centres, is creating growth opportunities outside traditional power grids.
- Insurance stocks are seen as attractive due to limited credit risk, strong balance sheets and steady dividend income in a volatile environment.
Read the full transcript below:
LINDSAY: As you just saw, markets are edging downwards, as they are in wait-and-watch mode over the Iran war. For more on finding opportunities in this market, let’s bring in Mike Vinokur, portfolio manager at Propellus Wealth Partners, iA Private Wealth. It’s great to have you join us. Thanks so much.
MIKE: Thanks for having me.
LINDSAY: So if we look at how changes in energy demand have been impacting the markets over the last six weeks or so, how much disruption from the Iran war do you think we’ve actually been pricing into the markets?
MIKE: It’s tough to say, because the markets have had such a rapid retreat and then an even more rapid re-ascent, if you will, back to eclipsing old highs, as if there hasn’t been any damage and there aren’t going to be any ramifications. Now, you know, as a dynamic economy, the global economy, the North American economy, has always been able to adapt to things that happen out of left field. But we think this is a bit of an anomaly, because so much goes through the Strait of Hormuz, and we don’t think that the world economy was quite yet ready for this kind of stoppage in traffic from a whole host of different perspectives.
LINDSAY: And we’re starting to see the repercussions of that, right? When you look at Canada’s inflation numbers for the month of March, it ticked upwards, most of that because of the rising price of fuel. How do you expect this to impact Canadian earnings growth this year going forward?
MIKE: Well, I think it really depends on how long the situation lasts. If there’s a quick and tidy resolution, it will pinch, but it will not affect earnings, most likely for the whole year. It may affect them for just a portion of the second and third quarter. If, however, there is no resolution and this just keeps going on and on and on, by the time May rolls around, we think that a whole bunch of companies are going to have to rethink their supply routes, their inventory build levels, what that means for inventory turnover management, cash flow management and a whole host of other decisions that will need to be made. Right now, I’m not sure that companies are prepared for a prolonged situation as we currently have in the Strait, but those ideas may have to adapt and change in the next couple of weeks if there really is no resolution.
LINDSAY: It’s so interesting looking at the trickle-down effect of all of this. And I’m wondering, too, have you seen any sentiment or behavioural changes in your clients in terms of how they’re looking to invest with everything that’s happening geopolitically and also inflation moving upward?
MIKE: We don’t really think that it’s appropriate for a client to change the way they invest or their strategic asset mix based on some kind of geopolitical headline or something that’s happening in the market. Because, as we’ve seen in the past, these things ebb and flow. Having said that, of course, human psychology 101 — when you turn on the evening news and you see that the price at the pump is higher, and you see that CPI is reported higher, and you see that there are all these kinds of bad events happening — of course it begs the question of whether we should be doing anything different. And that’s when professionals like us step in and have to chime in to say yes or no. But generally speaking, we stick to a plan. We stick to a regimented process of value investing, risk management, volatility curtailment, cash flow, getting paid to wait and trying, as best as we can, to filter out the noise, because there’s always noise about something that somebody is chiming in about that may or may not have negative impacts into the future.
LINDSAY: For sure, that’s a good point. Okay, I want to take a closer look at one company we’re talking a lot about today. It was at the top of the TSX earlier today, and that’s Superior Plus, after it announced a contract where it’s going to start supplying more natural gas to a hyperscale data centre. What do you make of that move, of that new contract, and would they actually need to add capacity to be able to service multiple contracts like this?
MIKE: So first of all, I think it’s a wonderful contract, and kudos to management. Full disclosure, we have owned the stock for a bit in some client accounts, so we’re quite pleased with the news today. I have not had a chance to delve into what percentage of their current capacity this takes up and how much more capacity they’d need to add in order to sign on other contracts. But we’re hopeful that this is the start of something big in their Certarus division, because obviously this could be a boon for industries like data centres, which are big users of power and electricity and don’t necessarily want to, or can, source it from the grid. Getting it from a source like Certarus provides — renewable natural gas — is phenomenal, both from a cost perspective and from a cleanliness perspective.
LINDSAY: And when we’re talking about sectors in particular, you like the insurance sector at the moment, and there’s a particular stock within that sector that you like. So tell us more about that and why you like the insurance sector.
MIKE: Okay, so we like the insurance sector because generally speaking, the lifecos typically don’t have much, if any, credit risk. While they may have some credit risk on their investment portfolios, given the bonds or other investments they have, they don’t lend money to people, per se. The one specifically we like is Lincoln National, although we do own quite a few lifecos. Lincoln National is one that we think is very inexpensive. It’s trading at roughly four to four-and-a-half times estimated earnings. I think it’s at $37 today. It pays a huge dividend, around four-and-a-half per cent. Their balance sheet is rock solid. They’ve got the ability to buy back stock. We think it’s just a very well-run company that got into a little bit of trouble when interest rates went from almost zero to five per cent, and that took a big hit on the whole industry, Lincoln included. But they’ve been able to come back from that, bolstering regulatory-based capital. They’ve had a huge equity infusion from a private equity firm at a much higher price than where the stock is trading today. So we think this is a great idea for somebody who is looking for upside over the next couple of years, a great dividend while you wait, and we don’t think there’s much downside, given the fact that it’s trading under book value and with such a very low price-to-earnings ratio.
LINDSAY: Okay, we’re going to have to leave it there. We are out of time, but Mike Vinokur, portfolio manager at Propellus Wealth Partners, iA Private Wealth, always appreciate having you on. Thanks so much for joining us.
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This BNN Bloomberg summary and transcript of the April 20, 2026 interview with Mike Vinokur are published with the assistance of AI. Original research, interview questions and added context was created by BNN Bloomberg journalists. An editor also reviewed this material before it was published to ensure its accuracy and adherence with BNN Bloomberg editorial policies and standards.
