Oil prices jumped over the weekend as tensions between the United States and Iran escalated, adding uncertainty for investors despite recent record highs in equities.
BNN Bloomberg spoke with Greg Halter, director of research at Carnegie Investment Counsel, who discussed why a long-term investment approach remains key and highlighted sectors tied to energy demand and infrastructure growth.
Key Takeaways
- Halter says trying to follow rapid geopolitical developments is a “mug’s game,” reinforcing a focus on long-term investing.
- He notes markets have remained resilient, with equities near record highs despite rising geopolitical risks.
- Insurance and exchange operators are among preferred areas, benefiting from strong fundamentals and elevated trading activity.
- Power and electrification remain key long-term themes driven by data centres, AI and grid investment needs.
- Companies tied to cooling and electrical infrastructure are positioned for multi-year growth as energy demand expands.
Read the full transcript below:
ANDREW: Oil jumping over the weekend amid new tensions between the U.S. and Iran. The Iranians apparently not happy with resuming talks while the Americans are blockading their ports. We’re joined by Greg Halter, director of research at Carnegie Investment Counsel. Thanks very much indeed for joining us.
GREG: Thanks for having me, Andrew.
ANDREW: You say it’s a mug’s game trying to follow the to’s and fro’s in this diplomatic and military conflict.
GREG: Definitely is. You know, the news changes from one second to the next, and I’m not even sure we know what the news really is coming out of various sources. So we like to invest for the long term and try and let these things work themselves out and not get too overly concerned.
ANDREW: There will be, though, a shadow over the market, presumably, until this thing moves towards a resolution.
GREG: I guess, although, if you consider reaching all-time highs as a shadow.
ANDREW: Yes. Yeah, the market did hit record highs last week, or U.S. stocks did. You have some ideas for us here among stocks. One that interested us was Progressive Corporation, huge in insurance. Do you see that as a conservative play or a safety play? Sorry, safety play. Go ahead.
GREG: Yeah. I don’t know about safety or conservative. We just view it as a very well-run company that now is trading at a much lower valuation than it was. You know, frankly, they probably over-earned last year on an EPS basis, but they continue to run their business fantastically, working towards that 96 combined ratio, which they’re well under now. Excellent dividend record, excellent capital allocator, and we all know we still need, at least in the States, auto insurance, and Progressive has done a very good job of capturing market share there.
ANDREW: What do you mean, over-earned last year? You mean it’s just making comparisons difficult?
GREG: Yeah, making comparisons somewhat difficult. But also, you know, you look at their earnings progression, and Progressive is one of the few companies that actually produces monthly EPS numbers. Those numbers really shot up due to the fact that the claim volumes may have been less. Maybe they tweaked back on their advertising somewhat. This company has a lot of different levers to pull, and, you know, they can pull or push on different areas, and their earnings just came through very high. Not that they’re capital-constrained or growth-constrained, but, you know, these things do tend to go through somewhat cyclical nature, and Progressive just had a very good last year. We never expect companies to continue to just outperform every year, year in and year out.
ANDREW: CME operates a gigantic derivatives exchange. You feel that’s a good bet right now?
GREG: Yes. I mean, their play is volume, and they do a lot in the energy business, oil business, in terms of trading, at least facilitating trades. And we know what’s going on in that space currently. It’s been very active, to say the least.
ANDREW: Interestingly, you think this electricity boom, the demand boom, is not going away, despite the woes of Fermi, which can’t apparently hold on to executives. They were going to call their giant data centre — they were going to name it after President Trump. I see. I don’t know whether that plan is on hold right now, but you do like some of these electrical plays, including Eaton, a supplier of electrical equipment.
GREG: Yes, that is correct. I mean, that’s one company I heard that just before I came on here. The fact remains that we have under-invested in energy in the U.S. for probably decades, and we’re trying to catch up. And we need to catch up, given what’s going on in the data centre space, as well as with AI. So companies like Eaton, which are providing transformers and other areas into the data centres in terms of liquid cooling and such, these companies, I think, have a long runway in front of them. This could be not just a year or two, but maybe five to 10-plus years to get our electric grid more robust, to be able to handle all of these things, including electric vehicles. I mean, there’s lots more that is needed and desired in this space, and Eaton certainly stands out to us as one that will benefit, or should benefit.
ANDREW: And one of the electrical generators — or, sorry, just remind us — Vertiv Holdings, VRT, what do they do? I know you like some of the electricity companies like NextEra, but what does Vertiv do?
GREG: Sure. Vertiv, again, is going into the data centre space. One of their big new growth areas is liquid cooling, because these chips run hot. You’ve got to keep them cool within the data centre, and that’s one of the fortes of Vertiv. This is a company that was a SPAC a few years ago, being run by David Cote, formerly from Honeywell, has a very good track record, and they continue to do very well right now, and we expect that to continue into the future as well.
ANDREW: Greg, thank you very much indeed.
GREG: Thank you.
ANDREW: Greg Halter, director of research at Carnegie Investment Counsel.
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This BNN Bloomberg summary and transcript of the April 20, 2026 interview with Greg Halter are published with the assistance of AI. Original research, interview questions and added context was created by BNN Bloomberg journalists. An editor also reviewed this material before it was published to ensure its accuracy and adherence with BNN Bloomberg editorial policies and standards.
