Toronto-area home sales recorded their strongest month-over-month increase in nearly a year in May as lower home prices and borrowing costs helped improve affordability. Sales activity has now increased for three consecutive months, while inventory levels have begun to moderate.
BNN Bloomberg spoke with Jason Mercer, chief information officer at the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board, about improving housing demand, shifting inventory trends, conditions in the condo market and whether the recent pickup in activity could evolve into a broader recovery.
Key Takeaways
- GTA home sales rose 10 per cent from April on a seasonally adjusted basis, the largest monthly increase since July 2025 and the third consecutive monthly gain.
- Lower home prices and reduced borrowing costs are encouraging more households to enter the market, improving demand after a slow start to 2026.
- Inventory levels remain elevated, but a combination of stronger sales and fewer new listings has begun to absorb excess supply and tighten market conditions.
- The condo segment continues to favour buyers, with substantial inventory giving purchasers significant negotiating power despite a modest improvement in sales activity.
- Mercer expects the market to remain buyer-friendly in the near term, but believes greater economic certainty could support stronger sales and firmer prices into 2027.
Read the full transcript below:
ROGER: Toronto’s housing market may be showing some signs of life. Home sales rose 10 per cent in May from April, the biggest month-over-month gain since July of last year, while home prices continue to decline. But the question now is whether this marks the start of a sustained recovery or just a seasonal uptick in activity. Joining us now is Jason Mercer, chief information officer at the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board. And Jason, thanks, as always, for joining us in studio. Always appreciated.
JASON: Good morning.
ROGER: Is this a turnaround? Is this a seasonal uptick, I think, or is it both?
JASON: Yeah, well, I mean, if you think about our forecast at the beginning of the year, one of the things we were saying, it was going to be somewhat of a year — or, two has started, obviously, slow — but, as you know, some households in the GTA started to take advantage of the affordability gains that we’ve seen, both on the back of lower home prices and lower borrowing costs. We have seen more people move into the marketplace, and it’s a good point you raise around, you know, the seasonality in the market. But even after you adjust for the time of year, seasonal adjustment, you know, we’re seeing sales rising over the last few months on a month-over-month basis, and we’re also starting to see some support for pricing as well. And so that suggests that, you know, tighter market conditions, a little less choice out there for buyers, is starting to have an impact on pricing as well.
ROGER: And is that it’s like it’s just tighter, is that it? Or people — what other reasons might be driving people?
JASON: Well, I think right now, I mean, you are seeing a little bit more activity in the marketplace from a sales perspective, and also listings have dropped off a little bit. And so those two together mean that we’ve absorbed some of the standing inventory that had really built up over the last couple of years. It’s not to say there’s still not quite a bit of choice out there, and the buyers are benefiting from that, but things have tightened up a little bit, especially in comparison to last year, but even what we saw, say, at the beginning of 2026 as well.
ROGER: And has the market adjusted, then, to a more balanced approach when it comes to — I mean, we lost a lot of new Canadians, new immigrants coming in. Those numbers have dropped off. So, and they were coming to Toronto, or the Greater Toronto Area. Has the region adjusted to that now, too?
JASON: Yeah, I think the change in the temporary migration policy, you know, really sort of impacted the rental market as well, because, you know, we were seeing very tight rental market conditions, say, two and three years ago. We’re seeing double-digit growth in rents, and now you’re not seeing that as much. And on top of that, there’s a lot of rental inventory as well. And that feeds through into the ownership side of things as well, because if you have a renter household that was, you know, thinking about purchasing a home, but they’re on the sidelines now, they have more negotiating power on the rental side of things as well. And so I think that, you know, as we move forward, we’ll see more first-time buyers moving into the ownership market, but that push hasn’t been quite as strong.
ROGER: Okay, and which way — are there areas within the GTA that are hotter than others, or how’s it working? Where are people looking?
JASON: Yeah, I mean, historically you’ve seen, you know, some neighbourhoods are always tighter than others, even when you’re in a bit more of a down market. So certainly those areas that are more focused on, you know, traditional single-family homes — we’re just not bringing on that type of stock any longer — you’ll see, you know, tighter ownership market conditions, regardless of where you are in the cycle. Certainly, if you’re looking at moving into the condominium apartment space as a first-time buyer, you’re still benefiting from a lot of inventory. And so, you know, a lot of negotiating power is still there.
ROGER: Yeah, I wanted to ask about the condo market. How’s that doing? Is it enjoying part of that upswing as well?
JASON: Yeah, I mean, you know, we have seen an uptick in sales, but at the same time, there’s still a lot of standing inventory there. And so if you’re, say, a renter right now, looking at, you know, what I’m paying for rent versus, you know, what I’ll pay for a mortgage, and obviously building equity in an investment over time, you know, this is a better time now compared to, say, two or three years ago in terms of negotiating a good selling price.
ROGER: So you’re starting to see some of the move. And how about the rest of — I know your focus is Toronto, but how does it compare to the rest of the country right now?
JASON: Yeah, and I think, you know, if you think of Canada, it’s really a grouping of different regional economies. And so certainly, you know, some markets are going to perform better than others. But if you look at sort of the major centres, you know, Toronto, Vancouver, for example, I mean, we’ve seen sort of similar patterns unfold, where your sales have been off just from an affordability standpoint, whereas, you know, inventory has been higher. And so, again, you’re seeing buyers benefit from, you know, a little bit more choice. But, you know, things are changing a little bit gradually, where we’re seeing, you know, slightly tighter market conditions, and that should provide some support for pricing initially and potentially start to see some growth, especially as we move into 2027.
ROGER: So how would you describe it? Buyer’s market? Balanced market?
JASON: I think right now the marketplace is still favouring buyers. You’re still seeing enough inventory that they’re able to negotiate on price in most neighbourhoods and most segments. But, you know, we are starting to see things tighten up, and I think that’ll even continue as we move into the second half of this year, especially if we start to see more certainty on the economic front, whether we’re talking about trade-related issues or whether we’re talking about geopolitical issues as that relates to oil prices and inflation and what have you.
ROGER: Okay, we have to wrap it up there, Jason. But thank you, as always, for joining us. Appreciate you coming in. Jason Mercer, chief information officer at the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board.
---
This BNN Bloomberg summary and transcript of the June 3, 2026 interview with Jason Mercer are published with the assistance of AI. Original research, interview questions and added context was created by BNN Bloomberg journalists. An editor also reviewed this material before it was published to ensure its accuracy and adherence with BNN Bloomberg editorial policies and standards.
