A wave of high-profile technology IPOs is drawing investor attention as companies tied to artificial intelligence, space technology and digital infrastructure prepare to enter public markets. Investors are weighing lofty valuations against expectations for rapid future growth.
BNN Bloomberg spoke with Michael Monaghan, portfolio manager and founder at Founder ETFs, about upcoming listings from OpenAI, SpaceX and Anthropic, the factors driving investor demand and how geopolitical developments could influence risk appetite.
Key Takeaways
- Monaghan expects OpenAI’s IPO to proceed relatively quickly following its filing, citing favourable conditions and strong investor interest in artificial intelligence.
- Valuations for AI-focused companies are increasingly being driven by future revenue potential and growth trajectories rather than historical financial results.
- Monaghan believes SpaceX is likely to attract strong institutional demand and could see positive trading momentum following its public debut.
- He argues Anthropic is gaining competitive ground in foundational AI models and may be strengthening its position against OpenAI.
- Monaghan said a resolution to Middle East tensions and lower oil prices would be supportive for investor sentiment and high-growth technology companies.
Read the full transcript below:
ROGER: Well, OpenAI just filed for its initial public offering, joining a recent slate of massive IPOs estimated to be worth some US$3.6 trillion. Now, that includes rivals like SpaceX and Anthropic. Here to discuss that and more is Michael Monaghan, portfolio manager and founder at Founder ETFs. Michael, thanks, as always, for joining us.
MICHAEL: Great to be here. Thanks for having us.
ROGER: Okay, if you like IPOs, this is the year for you, isn’t it?
MICHAEL: It certainly is. We’ve got, you know, SpaceX coming this week, and, as you mentioned, OpenAI and Anthropic have both filed as well.
ROGER: Let’s talk about OpenAI because that’s one guy. I mean, we know SpaceX is coming up, and OpenAI just kind of filed their papers, and they’ve said that we’re not sure when we’re going to do the IPO because some things we can get done as a private company. How do you interpret all that?
MICHAEL: Look, I think that, yes, the timing is uncertain, but there’s a lot of things that can happen in markets. So, in general, once someone files, that means they’d like to come public as quickly as possible. So, my guess is, you know, they’ll push this to have done in this quarter, the next quarter. I don’t think we’re going to be waiting very long for this at all.
ROGER: So, you think this may come, it could come over the summer. They’ve heard talk of the fall, but you think it might be the summer?
MICHAEL: Late summer, early fall, I think, are both good target dates.
ROGER: And what makes you think that?
MICHAEL: Just, you know, once you’ve hired the bankers, put the IPO into motion, the markets are holding up right now. There would be no reason to take any risk of waiting any longer. So, from a risk-mitigation perspective from the company, and capturing the excitement and the momentum within the AI space, it makes sense to move as quickly as possible. That’s how IPOs work. Once you file, you try to take them public as quickly as possible.
ROGER: And with the valuation, I just saw a note that said they’re giving it about a 50-50 chance it could be $1.5 trillion or more for OpenAI. Does that sound a little on the extreme side for you? Is that realistic?
MICHAEL: So, that jives with how they’re currently pricing and trading in the private markets. And so, these growth curves that we’re seeing within the AI space are really unprecedented, and so it’s hard to value these companies looking at the past. If we think about SpaceX, for example, which is coming on Friday, they filed with $18 billion in trailing revenue, and during the roadshow they added another $27 billion in revenue. I don’t think we’ve ever seen a company add that much revenue in the middle of the roadshow. So, I think that to value these companies, we’re going to have to understand not only what the historical revenue they were doing was, but what the run rate they’re doing at the point of impact is.
ROGER: All right. Of course, the one that is closest, and everybody’s attention is kind of turning to it in many ways, SpaceX. Do you think you’ll see that $1.75 trillion or $1.8 trillion valuation?
MICHAEL: Yeah, so we think very high probability that it’s going to come at $1.75 trillion. Remember, they set the share price in the prospectus at $135 a share. Often in a prospectus, you’ll see a range of share prices. I think Elon and the bankers are signalling to the market that it’s coming at $1.75 trillion. They’re not going to raise it. We think there’s plenty of institutional demand there. We think the stock will trade well. If I had to guess, my guess is it’s $2.25 trillion on the first trade. We’d like to buy a little, so I hope it hangs out there for a little bit, so we’ve got a chance to buy some. And my guess is it grinds higher over the next 15 trading days after the IPO.
ROGER: All right. And then the third one, it feels a little lost right now. I guess all the hype is going with SpaceX and OpenAI. Anthropic, where do you see it? Is it getting lost a little bit right now?
MICHAEL: We don’t think it’s getting lost at all. If anything, we see them as the premium provider within the foundational models. I would almost suggest that OpenAI right now is in what I call the Starbucks position. They’re getting hit from Gemini on the low end, which is bundled for free in search, and Anthropic is taking share on the high end. And so, OpenAI is going to have to figure out who they want to be in life because they’ve got very tough competition. Again, the Starbucks analogy, you’ve got Dunkin’ and McDonald’s on the low end, and Anthropic is your local neighbourhood coffee shop making the best coffee. And so, we think not only is Anthropic not being lost, we think right now it has the spotlight shining on it.
ROGER: All right. If you had to pick, if you could only pick one of the three to buy, which one would you take?
MICHAEL: Well, we own all founder-led companies, as you know from our mandate. We’re going to buy SpaceX on Friday, so I think the only one that’s coming, we’re going to go ahead and buy.
ROGER: All right. And if you could only buy two, which one wouldn’t you buy of the other two?
MICHAEL: Right now, I think Anthropic has built the best product as far as how they interact with customers, how their models are working. So, Anthropic would be our next purchase.
ROGER: All right. And going out from there, we heard the president saying today that there’s a deal imminent. If there is a deal, where does oil go? What kind of an impact do you see that having, and will it affect these IPOs at all?
MICHAEL: We think a deal is important. Remember, Exxon said a couple weeks ago at the Sanford Bernstein conference that the Western world has used their supplies. We’ve emptied our strategic reserves, so we have to get a deal. Obviously, oil will come back down to the pre-Middle East instability position, and we think it is important. You know, the market has looked through higher oil prices and inflation, but if we were to have a structural change to oil prices, that would be negative for some of these high-growth stories. I don’t think that’s coming. I think we’re finally grinding to a deal, and I really hope for all parties involved, who frankly, I believe are incented to get to a deal. So, I think we will.
ROGER: It does feel like both sides are kind of running out of time for different reasons, obviously, but are running out of time. And then just the markets today, is it just a little profit-taking, do you think?
MICHAEL: I think it’s a little profit-taking. I think sometimes when people start staring at a shiny object, they forget to do the rest of the work. So, we had, you know, last week people got a little spooked by the jobs numbers, but we think those are good because they’re showing the strength at Main Street, and it’s really Main Street that we need to keep an entire economy moving. So, that was number one. And then number two, we think all eyes are on SpaceX, so everybody’s just going to wait for that deal to come on Friday, and then people put their pencils back on the paper and start figuring out what other names they want to buy as well. So, I think we could have a cool, you know, sideways next day or two. I think we’re going to have a really nice print on SpaceX. My guess is that the guys at Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley did an incredible job putting this deal together. The book, my guess, has been scrubbed completely clean. I think we’ll see really good price action, and the market will continue to grind higher following that.
ROGER: All right, we’ll leave it there. Michael, thank you, as always, for joining us.
MICHAEL: Love being here. Great to see you again.
ROGER: Cheers, Michael. Michael Monaghan, portfolio manager and founder at Founder ETFs.
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This BNN Bloomberg summary and transcript of the June 9, 2026 interview with Michael Monaghan are published with the assistance of AI. Original research, interview questions and added context was created by BNN Bloomberg journalists. An editor also reviewed this material before it was published to ensure its accuracy and adherence with BNN Bloomberg editorial policies and standards.
