Oil prices have fallen from recent highs as negotiations between the U.S. and Iran move forward, but uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, shipping activity and global supply continues to cloud the outlook.
BNN Bloomberg spoke with Laura Lau, chief investment officer at Brompton Group, about the outlook for oil, gold, SpaceX, central bank policy and investment opportunities in energy infrastructure.
Key Takeaways
- Oil prices may remain elevated despite recent declines as uncertainty persists around the ceasefire, shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz and replenishment of strategic petroleum reserves.
- Gold initially lost some safe-haven flows to oil during the Iran conflict, but investor demand is returning as expectations for a more durable ceasefire improve.
- SpaceX’s rapid rise reflects strong retail investor enthusiasm, though its limited public float and rich valuation could create pressure as additional shares become available.
- Keyera is positioned to benefit from LNG Canada growth, oilsands production increases and synergies from its acquisition of Plains assets.
- GE Vernova continues to see strong demand for natural gas turbines and grid modernization projects tied to rising electricity needs and artificial intelligence infrastructure.
Read the full transcript below:
LINDSAY: Oil prices are at their lowest level since the earliest days of the war, though still far above the roughly US$72 level seen before the war in Iran started. So let’s get more from Laura Lau now, chief investment officer at Brompton Group. Good morning. Great to have you join us.
LAURA: Thanks for having me, Lindsay.
LINDSAY: So oil prices are holding around the US$80 range. Do you think this higher-for-longer environment is sustainable?
LAURA: I do think it’ll be higher for longer, maybe not at US$80. It really depends what happens with the ceasefire. There is certainly some angst about it. Is it really going to happen? Because it seems like the two parties have different ideas of what the ceasefire means.
So, for instance, Iran seems to think that a lot of these sanctioned funds will be unfrozen and released to them, and that doesn’t seem to be what the U.S. expects. This is just an agreement, just a ceasefire extension, an agreement to negotiate, and Israel isn’t a party to it. So we’re still not sure what’s going to happen with Israel and Lebanon.
The other thing is, are the shippers comfortable navigating the Strait of Hormuz? Are there mines? Are there not? Today, the G7 is meeting, and we do need Europe to use its mine-clearing vessels to clear the Strait of Hormuz. That has to be done, and for them to do that, they want to make sure there’s truly a ceasefire and that their people are not at risk.
Even when you do that, it takes time for those vessels to clear the area. One thing we are watching is whether there are empty tankers and cargo ships entering the Gulf because we know all those ships have to be cleared. But are there new vessels coming in to replace them?
So we’re definitely watching that. The strategic petroleum reserves around the world are being depleted. The U.S. SPR is at its lowest level since 1983, and those reserves have to be replenished. We think demand from those SPRs, whether in China or the U.S., will help keep prices higher for longer — maybe not in the US$80 range, but certainly higher than the US$60 level before the war.
LINDSAY: I guess there’s still, as you say, so many factors and so many questions about what’s going to unfold here, but also when it comes to additional oil volumes and the timeline for when everything will be back online, right?
LAURA: Yes, definitely. It doesn’t appear so far that the oil fields have been damaged beyond repair, but it will take some time for them to ramp up, especially the ones in Iraq. We do expect that, at some point, they will be producing at capacity again.
LINDSAY: Okay, I want to talk about gold a little bit right now because you typically expect gold to rally during geopolitical tensions. We saw gold fall quite a bit. It’s on the way up now, but what do you think about what we’ve been seeing with gold over the last couple of months, particularly ever since this conflict in the Middle East broke out?
LAURA: Gold had a very strong rally because of the deficits in the U.S., and those continue to increase. The other thing is that gold is very good for hedging geopolitical risks.
What we saw going into this conflict was that investors weren’t sure where the risk was coming from, but they knew geopolitical risk was rising. Then, when the Iran conflict occurred, a lot of those geopolitical flows went into oil instead.
Now that it seems like we might be getting a more permanent ceasefire, it feels like that money is moving from oil back into gold.
LINDSAY: I also wanted to get your thoughts on SpaceX because, as we’re talking about today, it’s set to overtake Amazon when it comes to value. What are your thoughts on that? When it comes to market capitalization, what are your thoughts on SpaceX and what you’ve seen since it was listed last week?
LAURA: I think SpaceX, first of all, has a very small float, about four per cent, and there will be more shares coming onto the market after lockup agreements expire, and that will put pressure on the stock.
But right now, this is the retail stock. Everybody’s playing it and having fun with it. I believe today, if not today then probably this week, it will overtake Amazon’s market capitalization with all of this euphoria.
Of course, they’re using their currency today to buy Cursor for US$60 billion in SpaceX stock. They’re acknowledging that his other AI venture, xAI, has been lagging behind competitors, notably Anthropic Claude and OpenAI in coding.
Coding seems to be one of the big killer applications in AI so far, and he wants in on it, so I think that makes sense.
But it really doesn’t make sense from a valuation perspective. When it IPO’d at about US$135, it was trading at roughly 100 times price-to-sales, and it’s now even more expensive after rising 40 per cent. But as I said, retail investors don’t care. It’s got the Elon premium.
LINDSAY: Okay, and now I’m hearing SpaceX has actually overtaken Amazon in terms of value, so that’s just something to note. But we do have to move on because we’re almost out of time, and I want to get to your stock picks for today.
Your first one is Keyera Corp. This is one of Canada’s largest midstream oil and gas companies. What is it that you’re seeing in terms of opportunity right now with Keyera?
LAURA: I think the big opportunity has been the Plains acquisition. Yesterday, they announced some of those synergies.
Initially, the target for cost savings and other synergies was $100 million. They’ve already realized $90 million, so they’ve increased that target to between $120 million and $140 million.
That’s really just the cost side. We expect there will be more revenue synergies over time, and we’re seeing more visibility. The overall backlog is up 40 per cent from a year ago.
The other thing is long-term visibility. LNG Canada Phase 1 is operating, and that increases volumes. LNG Canada Phase 2 is likely to move ahead, and they also benefit from oilsands growth.
We see more pipeline capacity coming online, and with that comes more oilsands volume. One thing they used to do was process a lot of natural gas liquids, which were used to help move oil through pipelines. Now those products are also being used to extract oil with less steam, which would normally require burning natural gas.
We see that as another growth driver.
Debt should come down to target levels by the middle of next year, which will help fund future growth, whether organic or through mergers and acquisitions.
On the organic side, they’ve also outlined opportunities including a new gas plant, debottlenecking existing gas plants, pipeline expansions and rail expansions. So we see a lot more visibility for Keyera going forward.
LINDSAY: And lastly, GE Vernova is another one you like right now. Why is that?
LAURA: We met with GE Vernova management last week. It’s basically a spinoff of GE’s energy businesses.
Energy infrastructure has been very hot because of AI, but their energy infrastructure business was strong even before that. The growth driver over the past couple of years has been their natural gas turbine business.
For the large, efficient natural gas turbines, only three companies in the world can make them. We’re seeing that they’re booked through 2030, and they’re starting to get orders for 2031 and 2032.
They’re expanding capacity, and they may actually have to expand it even more. They’re getting better pricing, and we see momentum continuing to improve.
But the next big growth area, which I’m even more excited about, is grid electrification — automation, storage and power transmission.
It is the fastest-growing business. Orders were up more than 100 per cent year over year and backlog has increased fourfold.
We really need this investment alongside new power generation to make sure the existing grid is more efficient, resilient and secure from both national security and cybersecurity perspectives.
So it has highly visible revenue growth, and management has been able to raise guidance for revenue, margins and free cash flow.
LINDSAY: Okay, we’ll have to leave it there. We’re out of time. Laura Lau, chief investment officer at Brompton Group. Appreciate you joining us. Thanks so much.
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This BNN Bloomberg summary and transcript of the June 16, 2026 interview with Laura Lau are published with the assistance of AI. Original research, interview questions and added context was created by BNN Bloomberg journalists. An editor also reviewed this material before it was published to ensure its accuracy and adherence with BNN Bloomberg editorial policies and standards.
