The domestic box office has surpassed the US$5 billion mark at its fastest pace since before the pandemic, but the industry is entering a pivotal stretch as studios look to upcoming releases to sustain momentum following a softer-than-expected opening for Disney’s live-action ‘Moana.’
BNN Bloomberg spoke with Paul Dergarabedian, head of marketplace trends at Rentrak, about the health of the theatrical business, shifting audience behaviour, the importance of a balanced release slate and why Christopher Nolan’s ‘The Odyssey’ is expected to be the next major driver of box office revenue.
Key Takeaways
- Disney’s live-action ‘Moana’ debuted with an estimated US$43 million domestically, falling short of expectations despite opening at No. 1.
- The domestic box office surpassed US$5 billion in 189 days, marking its fastest pace since 2019 and underscoring the industry’s continued recovery.
- Original films are increasingly attracting younger moviegoers, reducing the industry’s reliance on established franchises alone.
- Christopher Nolan’s ‘The Odyssey’ has generated record IMAX pre-sales and is expected to become the next major driver of theatre attendance and revenue.
- Studios are counting on a strong late-summer release schedule, including ‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day,’ to maintain box office growth through August.
Read the full transcript below:
ROGER: Disney’s live-action ‘Moana’ debuted at number one this weekend, but its opening fell well below the kind of numbers Disney was hoping for from one of its biggest franchises. Meanwhile, anticipation is building for Christopher Nolan’s ‘The Odyssey,’ which is already setting IMAX pre-sale records ahead of its release this week. Now, for more on this, we’re joined by Paul Dergarabedian, head of marketplace trends at Rentrak. Paul, thanks, as always, for joining us. Good to see you.
PAUL: Great to be here, Roger. Thank you.
ROGER: Okay, summer blockbusters. Is ‘Moana’ not blockbusting?
PAUL: Well, I think that’s the consensus on the Street. The movie opened at $43 million domestically, $95 million around the world. So, you know, that’s a big brand. It’s a live-action version of a classic Disney character and a classic movie. And sometimes, when you kind of remodel these franchises, take the previous installment that was animated and go live action, it doesn’t always work. It worked with ‘Lilo & Stitch.’ It didn’t exactly work here. But there’s a little movie called ‘Toy Story 5’ that’s out there, approaching $900 million worldwide. And ‘Minions & Monsters’ opened last weekend, so there’s three PG-rated movies in the top five at the North American box office this weekend. But help is on the way. ‘The Odyssey’ is almost here later this week. Then, of course, at the very end of July, ‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day,’ which is expected. It’s going to have the biggest opening of the year so far. So it’s the ups and downs of the box office. We had a billion-dollar month of May, a billion-dollar June at the U.S. and Canada box office, but we’re having a little bit of a lull here in July. But I think that’s going to change. We could actually have a bigger August than July, and that usually doesn’t happen.
ROGER: Steve, we’ll let you jump in here.
STEVE: We’re all in the marketplace. I think back before COVID, the box office generated about $40 billion in revenue. Now we’re closer to about $35 billion. What are the production companies looking to do to restore some of that lost revenue?
PAUL: Yeah, I think what’s happening is they’re trying to find, or crack, the code on how to get moviegoers coming back consistently to movie theatres. You know, we had a couple of movies. One was called ‘Obsession in Backrooms,’ Steve, that, as we all know, has done tremendous business based on a very modest budget. There seems to be a Gen Z resurgence in going to the movie theatre, and that’s really great to know because we thought that younger audience would be lost to their small screens. Yet they’re really gravitating toward big screens. You’ve got to really give them a reason to go, and it’s not the usual IP that’s drawing them in. The known commodities do well, but I think August is going to be a great month, actually, with some really interesting films. You have ‘The Dog Stars’ from Ridley Scott. We have a movie, ‘Tony,’ about Anthony Bourdain. Of course, having ‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day’ opening on July 31 will power a very strong month of August, but we need more than just one movie doing that. You need an assortment of films. That’s happening. ‘Moana’ underperformed a bit. You know, ‘Minions & Monsters’ opened over that Fourth of July weekend. That hurt its box office on that opening weekend. But I’m really excited with how things have been going this year. But there’s always the ups and downs of the box office.
ROGER: And you mentioned the three kids’ movies. Is that going to make studios maybe hesitate, or is there still demand for those kids’ movies?
PAUL: Well, there’s demand, Roger. But the problem is, if you have three of them opening within a month, families are going to have to make choices on what they’re going to spend their hard-earned cash on. They’re not going to see all three of those movies this weekend. But I think ‘Moana’ could hold up because, with ‘The Odyssey’ opening, it’s a very different movie. It’s not like, “Let’s take all the kids and go see ‘The Odyssey,’” although you could. But that’s a very different movie. So ‘Moana,’ for families that haven’t seen it, they’re like, “Wow, it’s a brand new family film.” ‘The Odyssey’ may not be appropriate for the little kids. It could be a great choice. I think it’s really the ‘Obsession in Backrooms’ thing. If that’s not an anomaly but a trend, I think Hollywood’s going to try and replicate that. Not so easy to do, though. They tried to do that when ‘The Blair Witch Project’ came out. Everyone was like, “Oh, low-budget horror. Every movie is going to do this kind of business.” Didn’t happen. But there is something afoot. Having YouTube creators usher people from their small screens to the big screen is a pretty interesting development in the world of entertainment.
ROGER: For the record, I didn’t get ‘The Blair Witch Project.’ I never understood it. Never understood.
PAUL: I’m with you there. But, you know, the numbers didn’t lie. They were pretty amazing. Yeah, I’m with you on that.
ROGER: All right, Steve, you got a question?
STEVE: Yeah. I’m not a camper. I didn’t see ‘The Blair Witch Project.’ No, no, that was too much for me back in the day. But it’s a good point. I grew up in the glory days of independent film and ‘Pulp Fiction’-type movements, and we’re not seeing that anymore. Now there’s such a dependency on these franchise movies. Just looking at the movies being released, what percentage are now just franchise-type movies? I saw ‘Supergirl,’ I was reading the other day. It’s just a real disaster. Is there an overdependence on franchises instead of just quality entertainment now?
PAUL: There is, and they’re very expensive, Steve, to produce, obviously. And when you rely on that, and ‘Supergirl’ — I’m glad you brought that up because, you know, it’s a big DC movie, a classic DC character. ‘Superman,’ a year ago this weekend, opened to $125 million in the U.S. and Canada. Fast-forward to this weekend, same weekend this year, ‘Moana’ opened to $43 million. So you can see a huge disparity there. The weekend was down 38 per cent. But help is on the way with ‘The Odyssey’ and then ‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day.’ But then again, a movie like ‘The Dog Stars’ coming out in August. In September is the new Brad Pitt movie, ‘Heart of the Beast.’ Really excited about that one. Of course, fast-forwarding to the end of the year, we have ‘Dune: Part Three’ and ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ opening on Dec. 18 of this year. So that’s going to be quite a weekend. But there are other movies in between. That reliance on known IP used to be something you could bet everything on. You don’t necessarily want to do that anymore. It’s not always a guarantee. And younger audiences, ‘Obsession in Backrooms,’ completely original films, though in the horror genre, totally worked. So the audience is telling Hollywood what they want by their presence or absence at the movie theatre.
ROGER: All right, we’ve got to wrap it up there, Paul. But always good to talk to you. Thank you for joining us.
PAUL: Thank you both.
ROGER: Paul Dergarabedian, head of marketplace trends at Rentrak.
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This BNN Bloomberg summary and transcript of the July 13, 2026 interview with Paul Dergarabedian are published with the assistance of AI. Original research, interview questions and added context was created by BNN Bloomberg journalists. An editor also reviewed this material before it was published to ensure its accuracy and adherence with BNN Bloomberg editorial policies and standards.
