U.S. economic resilience is in focus as technology earnings and affordability pressures raise questions about the durability of the expansion. The discussion spans corporate spending and the financial health of households.
BNN Bloomberg spoke with Greg Halter, director of research at Carnegie Investment Counsel, about AI spending, consumer trends and Uber’s long-term prospects.
Key Takeaways
- Halter said strong cloud growth at Microsoft and Google has not resolved questions about returns on their substantial AI spending.
- Business investment helped drive the reported 3.4 per cent U.S. GDP growth, with Halter estimating the AI buildout accounted for roughly half of the expansion.
- Momentum trading remains a factor in AI stocks as buyers chase past performance, Halter said.
- Baby boomer wealth is helping sustain spending on travel and experiences, even as inflation contributes to higher retail sales figures.
- Uber’s growth and cash flow contrast with concerns about autonomous vehicle competition, while its partnerships could help its long-term position.
Read the full transcript below:
MATT: Well, investors are digesting a better-than-expected U.S. GDP report that showed the economy expanding at its fastest pace in a year, fuelled in part by continued investment in AI infrastructure. For more, joining us now with his market outlook is Greg Halter, director of research at Carnegie Investment Counsel. Greg, thanks for being here.
GREG: Thanks for having me, Matt.
MATT: So we get into it too, you know, and I want to get your take, and you know, in just a second, on the Alphabet news too as well. But, you know, give us a sense, you know, how much of the AI story right now is it fundamentals? How much is investors really just chasing performance?
GREG: Well, I think in some respects, investors are always chasing performance. Hence the momentum trade, or at least a factor out there. So that’s always something to think about in that regard. It’s probably nothing new, and something that’s been occurring for hundreds of years in the, in the markets.
MATT: Yeah, I’m curious too, too. You know, as we get into some of the AI impacts, and we talk about Alphabet’s losses from what we saw yesterday — or I guess I should say today, after the report and their earnings they reported yesterday — you know, in comparison, it’s not a direct comparison, clearly, but Microsoft too as well, with, you know, holding back some of their spending, that cap — those capital expenditures, at least for right now, and how investors are treating both of those situations. Where is your take, and where do we land on those ones right now?
GREG: Well, investors want to see what kind of return they can expect from these companies spending all these billions of dollars. In some respects, you look at what Microsoft did with Azure, up 48 per cent, I believe, their cloud business, whereas Google’s cloud business was up over 100 per cent, but that is being overshadowed right now by search and other concerns on the large capex they’re spending. So, like most of these earnings reports you’re seeing, there’s lots of puts and takes right now. The market is not liking what they’re seeing and hearing from Alphabet.
MATT: Yeah, clearly one. Want to talk about the GDP report that we got earlier today too. Still showing very strong right now. That strong growth, you know, 3.4 per cent. Does that strengthen, you know, the case? You know, inflation is still very much an issue. We’re expecting the Fed likely to cut in December or as we get into the new year too as well. But, you know, what are you looking at right now, in particular, with the report and some of the details that we saw? But where things stand and where we could go here?
GREG: Well, yes, it was a very solid report, certainly driven by business investment. I think it was up 12.7 per cent at an annualized rate, which is the most since 2011. That’s the whole AI build that probably accounted for half of the growth. There’s actually some economists and commentators out there that are expecting a slowdown. They — which is interesting given the strength we’re seeing. The consumer, in some respects, is not in the best of health. Although I’m not sure I agree with that because the numbers just keep coming through. I think the Redbook number last — yesterday or the day before — was up 9.3 per cent. It continues at very high levels. Certainly, some of that is inflation, but I do think investors have to look at the fact that baby boomers have about $100 trillion in collective net worth. S&P is up 13 per cent this year, so that net worth went up even more. These people generally, a lot of them, are not working, so they don’t even factor into the workforce. But they have lots of money, and they’re certainly spending that money on travel and experiences and things like that. Look at Norwegian Cruise’s numbers today.
MATT: Yeah, it certainly is interesting, and that, that contrast is interesting too, isn’t it, Greg? As we talk about, you know, the baby boomer generation, but also just the affordability crisis that we are seeing, you know, across the United States and across, you know, affecting us here in Canada too as well. But that contrast that, you know, if those Redbook numbers are where they are, what else is, you know? Is it just the affordability? Is it just those higher prices that are pushing consumers to spend? Because it feels like it’s still that, that’s a large part of where we’re seeing that consumer spending.
GREG: There’s no doubt that inflation is a factor in terms of those numbers and the increases in those numbers and the very solid numbers, but again, $100 trillion is a lot of money. Just look at all the zeros after the one there. So these people, again, in a broad sense, they have a lot of money and they can spend it. And I think you’re seeing that. I don’t think we can discount that as a factor.
MATT: Yeah, certainly is interesting too. You know, getting into some of your picks too in your stocks. You know, I’m curious about your view on Uber’s long-term position too. You know, as autonomous vehicles are becoming a little bit more common.
GREG: Yeah, we like Uber fundamentally right now. The stock is really being challenged by the fact that autonomous from Tesla and Waymo is taking centre stage, and investors are debating how Uber is going to fit into that over the long term. And right now, it’s being viewed negatively. Meanwhile, the company continues to put up impressive growth and cash flow numbers, which we like. So at some point, this is going to come to a head, and I’m sure time will be the major factor here: whether or not Uber can offset these concerns over autonomous and its own partnerships that they have on the autonomous side can benefit the company.
MATT: Greg, appreciate your time and your insight today. Thanks for this.
GREG: Thanks for having me.
MATT: It’s Greg Halter, director of research at Carnegie Investment Counsel.
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This BNN Bloomberg summary and transcript of the Oct. 29, 2026 interview with Greg Halter are published with the assistance of AI. Original research, interview questions and added context was created by BNN Bloomberg journalists. An editor also reviewed this material before it was published to ensure its accuracy and adherence with BNN Bloomberg editorial policies and standards.
